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Slow recoveries: any role for corporate leverage?

Author

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  • Frank Smets

    (European Central Bank)

  • Stefania Villa

    (KU Leuven
    University of Foggia)

Abstract

This paper examines whether financial conditions of the non-financial corporate sector can explain why the recovery from recessions in the United States is slower since the mid-1980s. Leverage by the corporate sector has increased significantly since the financial deregulation of the mid-1980s. Empirical evidence shows that slow recoveries are associated with a significant drop in the growth rates of investment and bank loans, and with a surge in the growth rates of corporate bonds. In an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, counterfactual experiments based on estimates of two samples - 1965-1983 and 1984-2007 - show that the non-financial corporate indebtedness affects only marginally the speed of the recovery in the two samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Smets & Stefania Villa, 2016. "Slow recoveries: any role for corporate leverage?," BCAM Working Papers 1602, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkcam:1602
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    2. Mr. Alessandro Cantelmo & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2017. "Sectoral Labor Mobility and Optimal Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2017/040, International Monetary Fund.
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    4. M.Emranul Haque & Paul Middleditch & Shuonan Zhang, 2018. "Financial development and innovation: A DSGE comparison of Chinese and US business cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 244, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Candian, Giacomo & Dmitriev, Mikhail, 2020. "Default recovery rates and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Forecasting with instabilities: An application to DSGE models with financial frictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    8. George J. Bratsiotis & Kasun D. Pathirage, 2023. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy and Welfare in an Estimated Four-Agent New Keynesian Model," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2304, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. King Yoong Lim & Shuonan Zhang, 2023. "Optimal fiscal management in an economy with resource revenue‐financed government‐linked companies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2202-2225, April.
    10. Georgios Magkonis & Eun Young Oh & Shuonan Zhang, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Shadow Banking Development," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2022-06, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    speed of recoveries; indebtedness; financial frictions; estimated DSGE model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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