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The role of financial frictions during the crisis: an estimated DSGE model

  • Merola, Rossana

After the recent banking crisis in 2008, financial market conditions have turned out to be a relevant factor for economic fluctuations. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of financial frictions on the U.S. business cycle. The analysis compares the original Smets and Wouters model (2003, 2007) with an alternative version augmented with the financial accelerator mechanism à la Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1996, a 1999). Both versions are estimated using Bayesian techniques over a sample extended to 2012. The analysis supports the role of financial channels, namely the financial accelerator mechanism, in transmitting dysfunctions from financial markets to the real economy. The Smets and Wouters model, augmented with the financial accelerator mechanism, is suitable to capture much of the historical developments in U.S. financial markets that led to the financial crisis. The model can account for the output contraction in 2008, as well as the widening in corporate spreads and supports the argument that financial conditions have amplified the U.S. business cycle and the intensity of the recession.

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Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series Dynare Working Papers with number 33.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
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Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:033
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  1. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
  2. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2005. "The Magnitude and Cyclical Behavior of Financial Market Frictions," 2005 Meeting Papers 443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
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  7. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2003. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," BIS Working Papers 139, Bank for International Settlements.
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  11. Simon Gilchrist & Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  16. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Karamé, Fréderic & Juillard, Michel & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Jul 2014.
  17. Merola, Rossana, 2010. "Financial frictions and the zero lower bound on interest rates: a DSGE analysis," MPRA Paper 29365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  22. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Alberto Ortiz & Matthias Paustian, 2013. "Estimating Contract Indexation in a Financial Accelerator Model," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 10, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  23. Marc Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide & Marco Del Negro, 2014. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," 2014 Meeting Papers 506, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  25. Gelain, Paolo, 2010. "The external finance premium in the Euro area: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 49-71, March.
  26. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  29. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
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  31. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
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