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The role of financial frictions during the crisis: An estimated DSGE model

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  • Rossana Merola

    () (ESRI, Economic Analysis Division
    Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

After the recent banking crisis in 2008, financial market conditions have turned out to be a relevant factor for economic fluctuations. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of financial frictions on the U.S. business cycle. The analysis compares the original Smets and Wouters model (2003, 2007) with an alternative version augmented with the financial accelerator mechanism à la Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1996,1999). Both versions are estimated using Bayesian techniques over a sample extended to 2012. The analysis supports the role of financial channels, namely the financial accelerator mechanism, in transmitting dysfunctions from financial markets to the real economy. The Smets and Wouters model, augmented with the financial accelerator mechanism, is suitable to capture much of the historical developments in U.S. financial markets that led to the financial crisis. The model can account for the output contraction in 2008, as well as the widening in corporate spreads and supports the argument that financial conditions have amplified the U.S. business cycle and the intensity of the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossana Merola, 2013. "The role of financial frictions during the crisis: An estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 249, National Bank of Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201312-249
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bailliu, Jeannine & Meh, Cesaire & Zhang, Yahong, 2015. "Macroprudential rules and monetary policy when financial frictions matter," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 148-161.
    2. Fritz Breuss, 2016. "Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?," WIFO Working Papers 530, WIFO.
    3. Kamber, Günes & Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2015. "Financial frictions and the role of investment-specific technology shocks in the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 571-582.
    4. Yépez, Carlos A., 2017. "Financial intermediation, consumption dynamics, and business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 231-243.
    5. Alice Albonico & Alessia Paccagnini & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "Estimating a DSGE model with Limited Asset Market Participation for the Euro Area," Working Papers 286, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2014.
    6. Oana Simona HUDEA (CARAMAN), 2015. "Romanian Economy Modelling in the presence of Financial Frictions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(9), pages 19-26, September.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Thomas Brand & Fabien Tripier, 2014. "Risk shocks and divergence between the Euro area and the US," Working Papers 2014-11, CEPII research center.
    9. Frijters, Paul & Antić, Nemanja, 2016. "Can collapsing business networks explain economic downturns?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 289-308.
    10. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:484-505 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Claudio Battiati, 2017. "R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 48, Bank of Lithuania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; business cycle; financial frictions; Bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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