IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?

  • Gabriela Lopes de Castro
  • Ricardo Mourinho Félix
  • Paulo Júlio
  • José R. Maria

Using PESSOA, a small open economy DSGE model, we analyze the size of short-runfiscal multipliers associated with fiscal consolidation under two distinct alternative scenarios, viz "normal times" and "crisis times." The crisis times scenario embodies a higher share of hand-to-mouth households, stronger nominal rigidities, and more severe financial frictions, which purportedly better refflect the underlying economic environment during the "Great Recession." Results show that fiscal multipliers can be twice as large in crisis times, being approximately 2 for a government consumptionbased fiscal consolidation in the first year. One-year ahead effects are also substantially larger if this type of consolidation is performed in crisis times. Revenue-based fiscal consolidations are also more recessive in crisis times, though the differences against normal times are less pronounced.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201311.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w201311.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201311
Contact details of provider: Postal: R. do Ouro, 27, 1100 LISBOA
Phone: 21 321 32 00
Fax: 21 346 48 43
Web page: http://www.bportugal.pt
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jan Babecky & Philip Du Caju & Theodora Kosma & Martina Lawless & Julian Messina & Tairi Room, 2009. "Downward nominal and real wage rigidity : Survey evidence from European firms," Working Paper Research 182, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2008. "The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 414-423, 04-05.
  3. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-85, September.
  4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  6. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  7. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Silvia Fabiani & Kamil Galuscak & Claudia Kwapil & Ana Lamo & Tairi R��m, 2010. "Wage Rigidities and Labor Market Adjustment in Europe," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 497-505, 04-05.
  10. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
  11. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Félix, 2010. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 163-193, December.
  12. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium," RCER Working Papers 244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  15. Julián Messina & Philip Du Caju & Cláudia Filipa Duarte & Niels Lynggård Hansen & Mario Izquierdo, 2010. "The incidence of nominal and real wage rigidity: an individual-based sectoral approach," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1022, Banco de Espa�a.
  16. Woodford, Michael, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 7704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2005. "The Magnitude and Cyclical Behavior of Financial Market Frictions," 2005 Meeting Papers 443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias J. & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/17, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  20. Andrew Levin & Günter Coenen, 2005. "Identifying the Influences of Nominal and Real Rigidities in Aggregate Price-Setting Behavior," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 66, Society for Computational Economics.
  21. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2013. "Risk Shocks," NBER Working Papers 18682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in ‘t Veld & René Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & Günter Coenen & Susanna, 2010. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," IMF Working Papers 10/73, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Jacopo Perego, 2011. "Country Heterogeneity and the International Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 17272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. F. Gulcin Ozkan & D. Filiz Unsal, 2012. "Global financial crisis, financial contagion and emerging markets," Discussion Papers 12/35, Department of Economics, University of York.
  25. Barro, Robert J., 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Scholarly Articles 3451294, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  26. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Gernot Müller & André Meier & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 12/150, International Monetary Fund.
  28. José Mata & António R. Antunes & Pedro Portugal, 2010. "Borrowing Patterns, Bankruptcy and Voluntary Liquidation," Working Papers w201027, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  29. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  30. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
  31. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  32. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller, 2011. "Floats, Pegs and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 5-38, August.
  33. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  34. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 15369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
  38. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  39. Ryan Chahrour & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2010. "A Model-Based Evaluation of the Debate on the Size of the Tax Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 16169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 69-94, May.
  41. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, 07.
  42. Fabio Fornari & Livio Stracca, 2012. "What does a financial shock do? First international evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 407-445, 07.
  43. Jacob Frenkel & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Fiscal Policies and Growth in the World Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262561042, June.
  44. Emi Nakamura & J?n Steinsson, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 753-92, March.
  45. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June.
  46. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2009. "What fiscal policy is effective at zero interest rates?," Staff Reports 402, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  47. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2010. "Can We Explain Inflation Persistence in a Way that Is Consistent with the Microevidence on Nominal Rigidity?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 151-170, 02.
  48. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Effects of Government Purchases Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages F4-F32, February.
  49. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  50. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2006. "Mr Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5839, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  51. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 18779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Lopes de Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & José R. Maria, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation in a small euro area economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  53. Gabriela Lopes de Castro, 2006. "Consumption, Disposable Income and Liquidity Constraints," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  54. Derek Anderson & Ben Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF; The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 13/55, International Monetary Fund.
  55. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," NBER Working Papers 15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Luc Eyraud & Anke Weber, 2013. "The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 13/67, International Monetary Fund.
  57. Jan Vlcek & Scott Roger, 2012. "Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks; Recent Developments and Future Directions," IMF Working Papers 12/21, International Monetary Fund.
  58. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565, October.
  59. Rossana Merola & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 3. Long-Run Projections and Fiscal Gap Calculations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 934, OECD Publishing.
  60. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
  61. Kilponen, Juha & Ripatti , Antti, 2006. "Labour and product market competition in a small open economy, Simulation results using a DGE model of the Finnish economy," Research Discussion Papers 5/2006, Bank of Finland.
  62. Kilponen , Juha & Kinnunen , Helvi & Ripatti , Antti, 2006. "Population ageing in a small open economy – some policy experiments with a tractable general equilibrium model," Research Discussion Papers 28/2006, Bank of Finland.
  63. Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Michael Kumhof & Susanna Mursula & Charles Freedman, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits," IMF Working Papers 09/255, International Monetary Fund.
  64. Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
  65. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF); Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 10/34, International Monetary Fund.
  66. Dirk Muir & Anke Weber, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria; Low But Still Relevant," IMF Working Papers 13/49, International Monetary Fund.
  67. Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Vanda Almeida, 2006. "Computing Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Portuguese Economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (DEE-NTDD)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.