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Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending

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  • Giovanni Melina
  • Stefania Villa

Abstract

Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking, this paper first provides evidence that monetary policy reacted to bank loan growth in the US during the Great Moderation. It then shows that the optimized simple interest-rate rule features virtually no response to the growth of bank credit. However, the welfare loss associated to the empirical responsiveness is small. The sources of business cycle fluctuations are crucial in determining whether a “leaning-against-the-wind” policy is optimal or not. In fact, the predominant role of supply shocks in the model gives rise to a trade-off between inflation and financial stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending," CESifo Working Paper Series 5317, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5317
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    1. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pb:p:232-259 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kiley, Michael T. & Sim, Jae, 2017. "Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 232-259.
    3. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2016. "Endogenous credit standards and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 89-111.
    4. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pb:p:187-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Forecasting with instabilities: An application to DSGE models with financial frictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    7. Vivien Lewis & Stefania Villa, 2016. "The Interdependence of Monetary and Macroprudential Policy under the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Research 310, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    lending relationships; augmented Taylor rule; Bayesian estimation; optimal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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