Medium-term forecasting of euro-area macroeconomic variables with DSGE and BVARX models
The paper assesses the performance of medium-term forecasts of euro-area GDP and inflation obtained with a DSGE model and a BVARX model currently in use at the Bank of Italy. The performance is compared with that of simple univariate models and with the Eurosystem projections; the same real time assumptions underlying the latter are used to condition the DSGE and the BVARX forecasts. We find that the performance of both forecasts is similar to that of Eurosystem forecasts and overall more accurate than that of simple autoregressive models. The DSGE model shows a relatively better performance in forecasting inflation, while the BVARX model fares better in forecasting
|Date of creation:||Jan 2015|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma|
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy & Smith, Christie, 2011.
"Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 512-528, April.
- Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy & Smith, Christie, 2011. "Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 512-528.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
- Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making," IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
- Alessi, Luci & Ghysels, Eric & Onorante, Luca & Peach, Richard & Potter, Simon M., 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Staff Reports 680, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Onorante, Luca & Alessi, Lucia & Ghysels, Eric & Potter, Simon & Peach, Richard, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Working Paper Series 1688, European Central Bank.
- Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Fabio Busetti, 2014. "Quantile aggregation of density forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 979, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Lorenzo Forni & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2012. "Euro area and global oil shocks: an empirical model-based analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 873, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_257_15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.