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Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences

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Listed:
  • Lucia Alessi
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Luca Onorante
  • Richard Peach
  • Simon Potter

Abstract

This article documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The article is the result of a collaborative effort between staff at the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not exclusively focus on point forecast performance. It also examines methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:32:y:2014:i:4:p:483-500
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2014.959124
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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