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Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts

  • Pär Osterholm

Within a decision-making group, such as a central bank's monetary-policy committee, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system and, accordingly, a particular predictive density-or "fan chart"-associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast. Copyright � The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics" 2009. .

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 111 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 387-415

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:111:y:2009:i:2:p:387-415
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