Pooling of forecasts
We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are differentially mis-specified, and is likely to occur when the DGP is subject to location shifts. Moreover, averaging may then dominate over estimated weights in the combination. Finally, it cannot be proved that only non-encompassed devices should be retained in the combination. Empirical and Monte Carlo illustrations confirm the analysis. Copyright Royal Economic Socciety 2004
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2 Dean Trench Street, Westminster, SW1P 3HE|
Phone: +44 20 3137 6301
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.ectj.org|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
- Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- Ericsson, Neil R & Marquez, Jaime, 1993. "Encompassing the Forecasts of U.S. Trade Balance Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 19-31, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Forecast evaluation and combination,"
9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X., 1989. "Forecast combination and encompassing: Reconciling two divergent literatures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 589-592.
- Francis X. Diebold, 1989. "Forecast combination and encompassing: reconciling two divergent literatures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Coulson, N.E. & Robins, R.P., 1989. "Forecast Combination In A Dynamic Setting," Papers 8-88-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 0082, European Central Bank.
- Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
- Diebold, Francis X, 1988. "Serial Correlation and the Combination of Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 105-111, January.
- Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-461, September.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: an exposition, extensions, and illustration," International Finance Discussion Papers 412, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:1-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.