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Tail co-movement in inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring

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  • Natoli, Filippo
  • Sigalotti, Laura

Abstract

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a focus on the time span from 2014 onwards when long-term beliefs have substantially drifted away from the policy target. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail co-movements between short- and long-term distributions of inflation expectations, estimated from daily quotes of inflation derivatives. We find that, during 2014, average correlations between short- and long-term inflation expectations rose sharply; moreover, negative tail events impacting short-term beliefs have been increasingly channeled to long-term views, triggering both downward revisions in expectations and upward changes in uncertainty. Overall, our results signal a risk of downside de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations. JEL Classification: C14, C58, E31, E44, G13

Suggested Citation

  • Natoli, Filippo & Sigalotti, Laura, 2017. "Tail co-movement in inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Working Paper Series 1997, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20171997
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bauer, Michael D. & Christensen, Jens H.E., 2014. "Financial market outlook for inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Refet S Güürkaynak & Eric T Swanson, 2011. "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 350-364, February.
    3. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-129, April.
    4. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    5. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    6. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
    7. Smith, Tom, 2012. "Option-implied probability distributions for future inflation," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 224-234.
    8. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
    9. António R. Antunes, 2015. "Co-movement of revisions in short- and long-term inflation expectations," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3711-3751.
    11. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Panetta, 2016. "Central banking in the XXI century: never say never," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1626, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    3. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," DNB Working Papers 652, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," DNB Working Papers 652, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Cristina Conflitti & Riccardo Cristadoro, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 423, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Natoli, Filippo & Sigalotti, Laura, 2017. "A new indicator of inflation expectations anchoring," Working Paper Series 1996, European Central Bank.
    7. repec:eee:ecolet:v:167:y:2018:i:c:p:124-126 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Galati, Gabriele & Gorgi, Zion & Moessner, Richhild & Zhou, Chen, 2018. "Deflation risk in the euro area and central bank credibility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 124-126.
    9. repec:eee:jmacro:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:39-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ines Buono & Sara Formai, 2016. "The evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 321, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of low and falling inflation at the zero lower bound," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1040, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    14. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    15. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the 'new normal'," DEM Working Papers 2018/04, Department of Economics and Management.
    16. Marco Casiraghi & Marcello Miccoli, 2015. "Risk-adjusted expectations of inflation," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 286, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2018. "The Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures of the ECB: Motivations, Effectiveness and Risks," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 51(4), pages 513-560.
    19. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anchoring; inflation expectations; inflations options; inflation swaps; option-implied density; tail co-movement;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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