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Tail comovement in option-implied inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring

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  • Sara Cecchetti

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Filippo Natoli

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Laura Sigalotti

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We analyse the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area. Using a new estimation technique, we look at the tail co-movement between the moments of short- and long-term distributions of inflation expectations, where those distributions are estimated from daily quotes of inflation derivatives. We find that, since mid-2014, negative tail events impacting short-term inflation expectations have been increasingly channelled to long-term views, igniting both downward revisions in expectations and upward changes in uncertainty; instead, positive short-term tail events have left long-term moments mostly unaffected. This asymmetric behaviour may signal a disanchoring from below of long-term inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Cecchetti & Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2015. "Tail comovement in option-implied inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1025, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1025_15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-129, April.
    2. Bauer, Michael D. & Christensen, Jens H.E., 2014. "Financial market outlook for inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    5. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    6. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    7. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
    8. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
    9. Smith, Tom, 2012. "Option-implied probability distributions for future inflation," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 224-234.
    10. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Panetta, 2016. "Central banking in the XXI century: never say never," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1626, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Ines Buono & Sara Formai, 2016. "The evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 321, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    4. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," DNB Working Papers 652, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," DNB Working Papers 652, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Cristina Conflitti & Riccardo Cristadoro, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 423, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Natoli, Filippo & Sigalotti, Laura, 2017. "A new indicator of inflation expectations anchoring," Working Paper Series 1996, European Central Bank.
    9. Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of low and falling inflation at the zero lower bound," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1040, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    11. repec:eee:ecolet:v:167:y:2018:i:c:p:124-126 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Galati, Gabriele & Gorgi, Zion & Moessner, Richhild & Zhou, Chen, 2018. "Deflation risk in the euro area and central bank credibility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 124-126.
    13. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    14. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the 'new normal'," DEM Working Papers 2018/04, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Marco Casiraghi & Marcello Miccoli, 2015. "Risk-adjusted expectations of inflation," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 286, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2018. "The Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures of the ECB: Motivations, Effectiveness and Risks," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 51(4), pages 513-560.
    18. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    disanchoring; inflation swaps; inflation options; option-implied density; tail comovement;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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