IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/macdyn/v23y2019i05p1959-1977_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run

Author

Listed:
  • Nautz, Dieter
  • Strohsal, Till
  • Netšunajev, Aleksei

Abstract

This paper introduces structural VAR analysis as a tool for investigating the anchoring of inflation expectations. We show that US consumers' inflation expectations are anchored in the long run because macro-news shocks are long-run neutral for long-term inflation expectations. The identification of structural shocks helps to explain why inflation expectations deviate from the central bank's target. Our results indicate that the recent decline in long-term inflation expectations does not result from deanchoring macro-news but can be attributed to downward adjustments in consumers' expectations about the central bank's inflation target.

Suggested Citation

  • Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:05:p:1959-1977_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1365100517000517/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-129, April.
    3. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith & Stark, Tom, 2007. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 433-459, March.
    4. Herwartz, Helmut & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 104-116.
    5. Clark, Todd E. & Davig, Troy, 2011. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 981-999, July.
    6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    7. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-721, November.
    8. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and the News," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 1-40, March.
    9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Refet S Güürkaynak & Eric T Swanson, 2011. "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 350-364, February.
    10. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2018. "Decaying Expectations: What Inflation Forecasts Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 55-101, December.
    11. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    12. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    13. Chen, Wenjuan & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2016. "On the long-run neutrality of demand shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 57-60.
    14. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till, 2015. "Are US inflation expectations re-anchored?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 6-9.
    15. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei NetŠunajev, 2014. "Disentangling Demand And Supply Shocks In The Crude Oil Market: How To Check Sign Restrictions In Structural Vars," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 479-496, April.
    16. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    17. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    18. Dovern, Jonas, 2015. "A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 16-35.
    19. Easaw, Joshy & Golinelli, Roberto & Malgarini, Marco, 2013. "What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
    20. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 323-340, March.
    21. Strohsal, Till & Melnick, Rafi & Nautz, Dieter, 2016. "The time-varying degree of inflation expectations anchoring," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 62-71.
    22. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.
    23. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2010. "Modeling the dynamics of inflation compensation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 157-167, January.
    24. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    25. Aleksei Netšunajev & Lars Winkelmann, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    26. Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Long-Run Inflation Uncertainty," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 207-217, September.
    27. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    28. Nautz, Dieter & Pagenhardt, Laura & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-115.
    29. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    30. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2010. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-131, February.
    31. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    32. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions With Nonnormal Residuals," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 159-168.
    33. Strohsal, Till & Winkelmann, Lars, 2015. "Assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 33-48.
    34. Grothe, Magdalena & Lejsgaard Autrup, Søren, 2014. "Economic surprises and inflation expectations: Has anchoring of expectations survived the crisis?," Working Paper Series 1671, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    3. Demgensky, Lisa & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2023. "Narratives on the causes of inflation in Germany: First results of a pilot study," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 77, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    4. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Functional Shocks to Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates and Their Macroeconomic Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 10656, CESifo.
    5. Hachula, Michael & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 39-43.
    6. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The credibility of the ECB's inflation target in times of Corona: New evidence from an online survey," Discussion Papers 2020/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    8. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Weining Wang, 2022. "The common and specific components of inflation expectations across European countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 553-580, February.
    10. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy and Cost-Push Factors," MPRA Paper 119029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dieter Nautz & Aleksei Netsunajev & Till Strohsal, 2016. "Aggregate Employment, Job Polarization and Inequalities: A Transatlantic Perspective," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    2. Strohsal, Till & Melnick, Rafi & Nautz, Dieter, 2016. "The time-varying degree of inflation expectations anchoring," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 62-71.
    3. Hachula, Michael & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic news on long-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 39-43.
    4. Aleksei Netšunajev & Lars Winkelmann, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Winkelmann, Lars & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "International Transmissions of Inflation Expectations in a Markov Switching Structural VAR Model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    8. Nautz, Dieter & Pagenhardt, Laura & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-115.
    9. Lena Dräger & Michael Lamla, 2018. "Is the Anchoring of Consumers' Inflation Expectations Shaped by Inflational Experience?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7042, CESifo.
    10. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. James Yetman, 2020. "Pass-through from short-horizon to long-horizon inflation expectations, and the anchoring of inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 895, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
    13. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    14. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Computing Long-Term Market Inflation Expectations for Countries without Inflation Expectation Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(3), pages 23-48, September.
    15. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    16. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    18. Andrea Fracasso & Rocco Probo, 2017. "When did inflation expectations in the Euro area de-anchor?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1481-1485, November.
    19. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    20. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:05:p:1959-1977_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/mdy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.