IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article

Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations

  • Martin Bodenstein
  • Luca Guerrieri
  • Lutz Kilian

The paper provides the first quantitative analysis of how U.S. monetary policy responses should differ depending on the source of the observed oil price fluctuations. It presents three main sets of results. First, the paper proposes a novel decomposition of the marginal cost of production that highlights the role of each factor input for the evolution of inflation. Second, conditional on an estimated interest rate policy reaction function, the paper demonstrates that no two structural shocks induce the same monetary policy response, even after controlling for the impact response of the real price of oil, and quantifies these differences. Third, the paper shows that the policy responses implied by a policy rule, whose coefficients were chosen to maximize U.S. welfare, differ substantially from the policy response implied by the same rule estimated on historical data. Among a wide range of rules, a rule that is easily implementable and that nearly maximizes U.S. welfare involves the Federal Reserve putting zero weight on the price of oil and responding to wage inflation without interest rate smoothing.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v60/n4/pdf/imfer201219a.pdf
File Function: Link to full text PDF
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v60/n4/full/imfer201219a.html
File Function: Link to full text HTML
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 60 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 470-504

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:60:y:2012:i:4:p:470-504
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/

Order Information: Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
Web: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/pal/subscribe/index.html Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  2. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Carlos Montoro, 2010. "Oil shocks and optimal monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 307, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
  6. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. James L. Smith, 2003. "Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis," Working Papers 0305, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  8. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, 04.
  9. Renee Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent, 2010. "Inflation in an Era of Relative Pirce Shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2010-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  10. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Erceg & Martin Bodenstein, 2008. "Oil Shocks and External Adjustment," 2008 Meeting Papers 945, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Günter Coenen & Giovanni Lombardo & Frank Smets & Roland Straub, 2007. "International Transmission and Monetary Policy Cooperation," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 157-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998. "Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
  15. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2001. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C01-120, University of California at Berkeley.
  16. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2005. "Oil prices, monetary policy, and counterfactual experiments," Working Paper 0510, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  17. Pedro A. Almoguera & Christopher C. Douglas & Ana María Herrera, 2011. "Testing for the cartel in OPEC: non-cooperative collusion or just non-cooperative?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 144-168, Spring.
  18. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, 02.
  19. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  20. Anna Kormilitsina, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 0901, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  21. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
  25. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Steven B. Kamin, 2011. "Did Easy Money in the Dollar Bloc Fuel the Oil Price Run-Up?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 131-160, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:60:y:2012:i:4:p:470-504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Iulia Badea)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.