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The macroeconomic effects of low and falling inflation at the zero lower bound

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Neri

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper assesses the macroeconomic consequences of a prolonged period of low and falling inflation when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates, the private sector is indebted in nominal terms (debt deflation mechanism) and nominal wages are downward rigid. Cost-push shocks that in normal circumstances would reduce inflation and stimulate output have contractionary effects on economic activity, once the ZLB interacts with the debt deflation mechanism. The contractionary effects are larger and more persistent when nominal wages cannot be reduced and when the private sector is highly indebted.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of low and falling inflation at the zero lower bound," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1040, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1040_15
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1040/en_tema_1040.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Cristina Conflitti & Riccardo Cristadoro, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 423, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2018. "The Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures of the ECB: Motivations, Effectiveness and Risks," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 51(4), pages 513-560.
    4. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    5. Fabio Panetta, 2016. "Central banking in the XXI century: never say never," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1626, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; zero lower bound; debt-deflation channel; down- ward nominal wage rigidities.;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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