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Inflation, debt and the zero lower bound

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Neri

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of a protracted period of low and falling inflation rates when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and the private sector is indebted in nominal terms (debt-deflation channel). In this scenario, even cost-push shocks that in normal circumstances would reduce inflation and stimulate output are found to have contractionary effects on economic activity, especially when the interplay of ZLB and debt deflation is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2014. "Inflation, debt and the zero lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_242_14
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2014-0242/QEF_242.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    3. Andrés, Javier & Arce, Óscar & Thomas, Carlos, 2017. "Structural reforms in a debt overhang," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 15-34.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Stephan Fahr & Frank Smets, 2010. "Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 812-840, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Mateusz Szetela, 2016. "Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 195-226.
    2. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stelios D. Bekiros, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance in an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area: the Role of Expectations," Working Papers 201701, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Marco Casiraghi & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2015. "Is deflation good or bad? Just mind the inflation gap," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 268, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Margarita Rubio & Fang Yao, 2020. "Macroprudential Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1565-1591, September.
    5. Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of low and falling inflation at the zero lower bound," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1040, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "Why may large economies suffer more at the zero lower bound?," KAE Working Papers 2016-012, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    7. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    8. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    9. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1015, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    zero lower bound; monetary policy; disinflation; debt-deflation channel.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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