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Inflation, debt and the zero lower bound

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Neri

    () (Banca d'Italia)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    () (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of a protracted period of low and falling inflation rates when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and the private sector is indebted in nominal terms (debt-deflation channel). In this scenario, even cost-push shocks that in normal circumstances would reduce inflation and stimulate output are found to have contractionary effects on economic activity, especially when the interplay of ZLB and debt deflation is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2014. "Inflation, debt and the zero lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_242_14
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2014-0242/QEF_242.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    2. Stephan Fahr & Frank Smets, 2010. "Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 812-840, December.
    3. repec:eee:moneco:v:88:y:2017:i:c:p:15-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    5. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Andrés, Javier & Arce, Óscar & Thomas, Carlos, 2017. "Structural reforms in a debt overhang," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 15-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "Amplification of shocks at the zero lower bound in a small open and large closed economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1029-1033, September.
    2. Karol Szafranek, 2016. "Linking excessive disinflation and output movements in an emerging, small open economy A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve perspective," NBP Working Papers 239, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    3. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Mateusz Szetela, 2016. "Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 195-226.
    4. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stelios D. Bekiros, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance in an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area: the Role of Expectations," Working Papers 201701, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Fang Yao & Margarita Rubio, 2017. "Macroprudential policies in a low interest-rate environment," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1015, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of low and falling inflation at the zero lower bound," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1040, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Marco Casiraghi & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2015. "Is deflation good or bad? Just mind the inflation gap," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 268, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    zero lower bound; monetary policy; disinflation; debt-deflation channel.;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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