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Subprime mortgages and banking in a DSGE model

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  • Martino N. Ricci
  • Patrizio Tirelli

Abstract

Can a DSGE model replicate the financial crisis effects without assuming unprecedented and implausibly large shocks? Starting from the assumption that the subprime crisis triggered the financial crisis, we introduce balance-sheet effects for housing market borrowers and for commercial banks in an otherwise standard DSGE model. Our crisis experiment is initiated by a shock to subprime lending risk, which is calibrated to match the observed increase in subprime delinquency rates. Due to contagion of prime borrowers and to the ensuing adverse effect on banks balance sheets, this apparently small shock is sufficient to trigger a decline in housing investment comparable to what was observed during the financial crisis. The adverse effect of subprimers risk on commercial banks' agency problem is a crucial driver of our results.
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Suggested Citation

  • Martino N. Ricci & Patrizio Tirelli, 2017. "Subprime mortgages and banking in a DSGE model," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201709, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201709
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Mortgage default; subprime risk; DSGE.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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