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Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?

The downturn in the world economy following the global banking crisis has left the Chinese economy relatively unscathed. This paper develops a model of the Chinese economy using a DSGE framework with a banking sector to shed light on this episode. It differs from other applications in the use of indirect inference procedure to test the ?tted model. The model finds that the main shocks hitting China in the crisis were international and that domestic banking shocks were unimportant. However, directed bank lending and direct government spending was used to supplement monetary policy to aggressively offset shocks to demand. The model finds that government expenditure feedback reduces the frequency of a business cycle crisis but that any feedback effect on investment creates excess capacity and instability in output.

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Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2013/5.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2013/5
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  1. Matthews, Kent & Guo, Jianguang & Zhang, Nina, 2007. "Rational Inefficiency and non-performing loans in Chinese Banking: A non-parametric Bootstrapping Approach," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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  22. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2012. "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 9057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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