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How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis

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  • Minford, Patrick
  • Liu, Chunping

Abstract

We examine whether by adding a credit channel to the standard New Keynesian model we can account better for the behaviour of US macroeconomic data up to and including the banking crisis. We use the method of indirect inference which evaluates statistically how far a model?s simulated behaviour mimics the behaviour of the data. We find that the model with credit dominates the standard model by a substantial margin. The credit channel is the main contributor to the variation in the output gap during the crisis.

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  • Minford, Patrick & Liu, Chunping, 2012. "How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9142
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    Cited by:

    1. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "What is the truth about DSGE models? Testing by indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2019. "Testing DSGE Models by Indirect Inference: a Survey of Recent Findings," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 593-620, July.
    3. Bermejo, Vicente J. & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Abad, José M., 2015. "How does easing liquidity constraints affect aggregate employment?," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb1504, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    4. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2015. "Comparing Indirect Inference and Likelihood testing: asymptotic and small sample results," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/8, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Schleer, Frauke & Kappler, Marcus, 2014. "The Phillips Curve: (In)stability, the role of credit, and implications for potential output measurement," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-067, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial frictions; Credit channel; Bank crisis; indirect inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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