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How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis

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Abstract

We examine whether by adding a credit channel to the standard New Keynesian model we can account better for the behaviour of US macroeconomic data up to and including the banking crisis. We use the method of indirect inference which evaluates statistically how far a model's simulated behaviour mimics the behaviour of the data. We find that the model with credit dominates the standard model by a substantial margin. Credit shocks are the main contributor to the variation in the output gap during the crisis.

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  • Liu, Chunping & Minford, Patrick, 2012. "How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2012/22
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    Cited by:

    1. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2015. "Comparing Indirect Inference and Likelihood testing: asymptotic and small sample results," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/8, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "What is the truth about DSGE models? Testing by indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial frictions; credit channel; bank crisis; indirect inference;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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