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Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference

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Abstract

We examine a two country model of the EU and the US. Each has a small sector of the labour and product markets in which there is wage/price ridigity, but otherwise enjoys flexible wages and prices with a one quarter information lag. Using a VAR to represent the data, we find the model as a whole rejected. Howerver it is accepted for particular features of the data, such as output and (marginally) inflation behaviour. The model highlights a lack of spillovers between the US and the EU.

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  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009. "Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2009/3
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    Cited by:

    1. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Ou, Zhirong & Zhu, Zheyi, 2021. "The eurozone: what is to be done?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1417-1428, November.
    3. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    4. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Zheyi Zhu, 2021. "Can a small New Keynesian model of the world economy with risk‐pooling match the facts?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1993-2021, April.
    5. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou, 2013. "What Causes Banking Crises? An Empirical Investigation for the World Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 581-611, September.
    6. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2012. "Non Stationary Shocks, Crises and Policy," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 191-224.
    7. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Juan Martinez Oliva, 2012. "Reducing Global Imbalances: Can Fixed Exchange Rates and Current Account Limits Help?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 163-192, February.
    8. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    9. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
    10. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, 2013. "Currency War Or Currency Peace: The Dollar And Renminbi In A World Of Portfolio And Current Account Imbalances," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-34.
    11. Patrick Minford & Yue Gai & David Meenagh, 2022. "North and South: A Regional Model of the UK," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 565-616, July.
    12. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009. "Some problems in the testing of DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/31, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    13. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    14. Patrick Minford, 2010. "The Banking Crisis: A Rational Interpretation," Political Studies Review, Political Studies Association, vol. 8(1), pages 40-54, January.
    15. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "Taylor Rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-123.
    16. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael & Zhu, Zheyi, 2022. "The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    18. Maksim Isakin & Phuong V. Ngo, 2022. "Multiplicity in New Keynesian Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 505-521, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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