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The 'Puzzles' methodology: en route to Indirect Inference?

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in two recent papers. We conclude that Indirect Inference is the proper end point of the puzzles methodology.

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Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2009/22.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2009/22
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  2. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickensy, 2007. " Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0709, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised Mar 2008.
  3. Patrick Minford & Konstantinos Theodoridis & David Meenagh, 2009. "Testing a Model of the UK by the Method of Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-291, April.
  4. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  5. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2006. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 0583, European Central Bank.
  6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-66, January.
  8. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  9. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  10. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1987. "Calibration as Estimation," Working Papers 700, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  11. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2009. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US Economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," CEPR Discussion Papers 7537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  15. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008. "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  17. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2009. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference," CEPR Discussion Papers 7385, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2007. "Money And Monetary Policy In Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 88-122, 09.
  19. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Household Heterogeneity and the Real Exchange Rate: Still a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "Calibration in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 826, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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