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Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

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We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data,the test is based on the Wald statistic. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. But their model passes the Wald test easily if the errors have the properties assumed by SW but scaled down. We compare a New Classical version of the model which also passes the test easily if error properties are chosen using New Classical priors (notably excluding shocks to preferences). Both versions have (different) difficulties fitting the data if the actual error properties are used. However, a version embedding a small sector with Calvo contracts in an otherwise New Classical economy fits the data well without any scaling.

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  • Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2008. "Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/11
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    1. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1417-1428, November.
    2. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2009. "Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 978-992, September.
    3. ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2009. "The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioral Asset Bubbles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2010. "Two Orthogonal Continents? Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and the EU Using Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 23-44, February.
    5. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Juan Martinez Oliva, 2012. "Reducing Global Imbalances: Can Fixed Exchange Rates and Current Account Limits Help?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 163-192, February.
    6. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
    8. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, 2013. "Currency War Or Currency Peace: The Dollar And Renminbi In A World Of Portfolio And Current Account Imbalances," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-34.
    9. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009. "Some problems in the testing of DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/31, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    10. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    11. Patrick Minford, 2010. "The Banking Crisis: A Rational Interpretation," Political Studies Review, Political Studies Association, vol. 8(1), pages 40-54, January.
    12. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "Taylor Rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-123.
    13. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael & Zhu, Zheyi, 2022. "The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrap; DSGE Model; VAR model; Model of EU; indirect inference; Wald statistic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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