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The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioural Asset Bubbles

  • Rhys ap Gwilym

    ()

    (Bangor University)

I introduce behavioural asset pricing rules into a wider dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Asset price bubbles emerge endogenously within the model. I find that in this model the only monetary policy that would be likely to enhance welfare is a counter-intuitive ‘running with the wind’ policy. I conclude that the optimal policy is highly dependent on the nature of the behavioural rules that are stipulated. Given that monetary authorities have limited information about the ways in which agents actually behave, a systematic monetary policy response to asset price misalignments is unlikely to enhance welfare.

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File URL: http://www.bangor.ac.uk/business/docs/BBSWP100011.pdf
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Paper provided by Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales) in its series Working Papers with number 10011.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bng:wpaper:10011
Contact details of provider: Postal: Gwynedd LL57 2DG
Phone: +44 (0) 1248 383648
Web page: http://www.bangor.ac.uk/business/research/

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  1. ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2010. "Can behavioral finance models account for historical asset prices?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 187-189, August.
  2. Gruen, David & Plumb, Michael & Stone, Andrew, 2005. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?," MPRA Paper 833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
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  7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  8. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  9. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
  10. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
  11. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2004. "The Cost of Nominal Inertia in NNS Models," NBER Working Papers 10889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  15. Berardi, Michele, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 776-792, May.
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  17. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring Financial Stability: Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
  19. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1986. "The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalisists," NBER Working Papers 1854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2009. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US Economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," CEPR Discussion Papers 7537, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Asset Prices, Financial Instability, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 14-18, May.
  22. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2007. "The Cost of Nominal Rigidity in NNS Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1563-1586, October.
  23. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
  24. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  25. Brock, William A & LeBaron, Blake D, 1996. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 94-110, February.
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