The Impact of Technical Analysis on Asset Price Dynamics
We study the impact of technical analysis in a context of heterogeneous, utility-maximising agents. A framework is provided to capture observed diversity in forecast estimates as a result of interaction between prior beliefs and asymmetric information. Using investment decisions of fundamentalists as a benchmark, agents’ optimal demand difference, which reflects expectation heterogeneity and the use of technical analysis, offers insights into the endogenous uncertainly in asset pricing behaviour. Technical analysis results in price feedback. We define a new family of feedback rules over cumulative distribution functions. Using bifurcation analysis, we show how prices asymptotically approach equilibrium and how significant feedback effects drive them off the equilibrium path. Both trend chasing strategy and contrarian strategy among technical trades are described in the model: the latter leads prices to overshoot the fundamental value with a high frequency; whereas in the former case, prices exhibit prolonged cyclic behaviour.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||EM (updated August 2003)|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert C. Merton, 1980.
"On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation,"
NBER Working Papers
0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
- M. A. H. dempster & C. M. Jones, 2001. "A real-time adaptive trading system using genetic programming," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 397-413.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1991. "Naive Trading Rules in Financial Markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov Prediction Theory: A Study of "Technical Analysis."," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 549-71, October.
- Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002.
"The price dynamics of common trading strategies,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987.
"Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test,"
NBER Working Papers
2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Pagano, Marco, 1986.
"Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Pagano, 1989. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 269-287.
- C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001.
"Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Research Paper Series 56, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Xue-Zhong (Tony) He & Carl Chiarella, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996.
"Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model,"
9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991.
"Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns,"
90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
- Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-25, March.
- LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999.
"Time series properties of an artificial stock market,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
- Arthur, W.B. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R., 1997. "Time Series Properties of an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9725, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
223, Society for Computational Economics.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
- Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Levy, Moshe & Levy, Haim & Solomon, Sorin, 1994. "A microscopic model of the stock market : Cycles, booms, and crashes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 103-111, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.