IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/rpaper/95.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asset Pricing, Volatility and Market Behaviour: A Market Fraction Approach

Author

Abstract

Motivated by recent development in structural agent models on asset pricing, explanation power and calibration issue of those models, this paper presents a simple market fraction model of two types of traders - fundamentalists and trend followers - under a market maker scenario. It is found that asset prices, wealth dynamics and market behaviour are characterised by the dynamics of the underlying deterministic system. The model is able to explain various market behaviour, and generate some of the stylized facts. By introducing two measures on wealth dynamics, we are able to show the limitations of profitability and rationality of different trading strategies. Six significant autocorrelation coefficients (ACs) patterns are charaterized by different types of bifurcation of the underlying deterministic system. In particular, an oscillating and decaying AC pattern with positive ACs for even lags and negative for odd lags can only be generated when the market is dominated by the fundamentalists (that is when the parameters are near the flip bifurcation boundary), and a positive decaying AC pattern with long memory can only be generated when the market is dominated by the trend followers with high decay memory (that is when the parameters are near the Hopf bifurcation boundary). The results show a promising power of stability analysis and bifurcation theory in explaining and calibrating asset price and wealth dynamics, markt behaviour, and generating various econometric properties of financial data.

Suggested Citation

  • Xue-Zhong He, 2003. "Asset Pricing, Volatility and Market Behaviour: A Market Fraction Approach," Research Paper Series 95, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:95
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp95.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    2. Brock, William A & LeBaron, Blake D, 1996. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 94-110, February.
    3. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
    4. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
    5. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    7. Arthur, W.B. & Holland, J.H. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R. & Tayler, P., 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9625, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    8. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1133-1151, September.
    9. Iori, Giulia, 2002. "A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-285, October.
    10. Garman, Mark B., 1976. "Market microstructure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-275, June.
    11. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
    12. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Dynamics of beliefs and learning under aL-processes -- the heterogeneous case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 503-531, January.
    13. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    14. Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March.
    15. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1999. "Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 41-60, February.
    16. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 1999. "Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6719), pages 498-500, February.
    17. Chen, Shu-Heng & Yeh, Chia-Hsuan, 2002. "On the emergent properties of artificial stock markets: the efficient market hypothesis and the rational expectations hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 217-239, October.
    18. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    19. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
    20. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 503-536, September.
    21. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
    22. M. M. Dacorogna & U. A. Muller & C. Jost & O. V. Pictet & J. R. Ward, 1995. "Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 383-403.
    23. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    24. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    25. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
    26. Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    27. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    28. Peck, James, 1990. "Liquidity without money: A General equilibrium model of market microstructure," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 80-103, March.
    29. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    30. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    31. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
    32. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. "On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-248, May.
    33. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    34. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    35. B. LeBaron, 2001. "A builder's guide to agent-based financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 254-261.
    36. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    37. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    38. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dieci, Roberto & Foroni, Ilaria & Gardini, Laura & He, Xue-Zhong, 2006. "Market mood, adaptive beliefs and asset price dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 520-534.
    2. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    3. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & He, Xue-Zhong, 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations and speculative behavior in a dynamic multi-asset framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 408-427, March.
    4. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2008. "Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 59-79.
    6. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Duo Wang, 2004. "Statistical Properties of a Heterogeneous Asset Price Model with Time-Varying Second Moment," Research Paper Series 142, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Sansone, Alessandro & Garofalo, Giuseppe, 2007. "Asset price dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous trading strategies and time delays," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 247-257.
    8. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2005. "Heterogeneity, Profitability and Autocorrelations," Research Paper Series 147, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2011. "The dynamic behaviour of asset prices in disequilibrium: a survey," International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 101-139.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Youwei Li & Xue-Zhong (Tony) He, 2005. "Heterogeneity, Profitability and Autocorrelations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 244, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Youwei Li & Xue-Zhong He, 2005. "Long Memory, Heterogeneity, and Trend Chasing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 113, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2008. "Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 59-79.
    4. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    5. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
    6. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Duo Wang, 2004. "Statistical Properties of a Heterogeneous Asset Price Model with Time-Varying Second Moment," Research Paper Series 142, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 503-536, September.
    8. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    9. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Wang, Duo, 2006. "A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 535-555.
    10. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    11. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
    13. Tai, Chung-Ching & Chen, Shu-Heng & Yang, Lee-Xieng, 2018. "Cognitive ability and earnings performance: Evidence from double auction market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 409-440.
    14. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Kiel Working Papers 1426, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Dieci, Roberto & Foroni, Ilaria & Gardini, Laura & He, Xue-Zhong, 2006. "Market mood, adaptive beliefs and asset price dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 520-534.
    16. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agents Models: two simple examples, forthcoming In: Lines, M. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamical Systems in Economics, CISM Courses and Lectures, Springer, 2005, pp.131-164," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    17. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    19. Jörn Dermietzel, 2008. "The Heterogeneous Agents Approach to Financial Markets – Development and Milestones," International Handbooks on Information Systems, in: Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), Handbook on Information Technology in Finance, chapter 19, pages 443-464, Springer.
    20. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:95. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.