IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/otg/wpaper/1602.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did the FED REact to Asset Price Bubbles?

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis Wesselbaum

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)

  • Marc-Andre Luik

    (Helmut-Schmidt University)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the U. S. Federal Reserve responds to asset price bubbles or not. We estimate a DSGE model featuring a financial accelerator and a process for asset price bubbles. We find evidence for a fairly strong reaction to bubbles. However, a counterfactual analysis shows that output is lower if the central banks reacts to the asset price bubble. Finally, we estimate an asymmetric version in which the central bank only reacts to positive price deviations. This version generates the best statistical fit. Including the bubble reduces the negative effects of the recent financial crisis but the symmetric response would have generated an earlier and stronger recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Wesselbaum & Marc-Andre Luik, 2016. "Did the FED REact to Asset Price Bubbles?," Working Papers 1602, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1602
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago511401.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    2. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    3. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2007. "Asset Prices, Nominal Rigidities, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 256-275, April.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    5. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    7. Otmar Issing, 2011. "Lessons for monetary policy: what should the consensus be?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 81, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    9. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-164, Summer.
    10. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    11. Ravn Søren Hove, 2012. "Has the Fed Reacted Asymmetrically to Stock Prices?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, June.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    13. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    14. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 184-221, July.
    15. Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Asset Prices, Financial Instability, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 14-18, May.
    16. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    17. Issing, Otmar, 2011. "Lessons for monetary policy: What should the consensus be?," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/13, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    18. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2013. "Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    19. Dupor, Bill, 2005. "Stabilizing non-fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 727-747, May.
    20. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    21. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
    22. Fuhrer, Jeff & Tootell, Geoff, 2008. "Eyes on the prize: How did the fed respond to the stock market?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 796-805, May.
    23. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    25. In't Veld, Jan & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2011. "The recent boom-bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 386-406, April.
    26. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2014. "Asymmetric monetary policy towards the stock market: A DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 24-41.
    27. Daisuke Ikeda, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in Asset Price Bubbles," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    28. Mr. Otmar Issing, 2011. "Lessons for Monetary Policy: What Should the Consensus Be?," IMF Working Papers 2011/097, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    30. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2008. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 45-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    33. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    34. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
    35. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does ‘Benign Neglect’ Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-164.
    36. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    37. Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Bubbles over the U.S. business cycle: A macroeconometric approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 27-41.
    38. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2014. "Asymmetric monetary policy towards the stock market: A DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 24-41.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Bubbles over the U.S. business cycle: A macroeconometric approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 27-41.
    4. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    5. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    6. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy rules, financial amplification, and uncertain business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 271-305.
    7. Ravn Søren Hove, 2012. "Has the Fed Reacted Asymmetrically to Stock Prices?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, June.
    8. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    9. Caraiani, Petre & Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2020. "Credit policy and asset price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Learning about the interdependence between the macroeconomy and the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-242.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    13. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    15. Nathan S. Balke & Enrique Martínez García & Zheng Zeng, 2017. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty," Globalization Institute Working Papers 317, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner & Halvor Ruf, 2017. "Q-Targeting in New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 189-224, November.
    17. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Interdependence between monetary policy and asset prices in ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Ida, Daisuke, 2011. "Monetary policy and asset prices in an open economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-117, August.
    21. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    22. Lee, Dong Jin & Son, Jong Chil, 2013. "Nonlinearity and structural breaks in monetary policy rules with stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Methods; Bubbles; Monetary Policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Janet Bryant (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/etotanz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.