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Bubbles over the U.S. business cycle: A macroeconometric approach

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  • Luik, Marc-André
  • Wesselbaum, Dennis

Abstract

This paper builds a New Keynesian model with financial frictions and monetary and fiscal rules for the United States. We incorporate a rational bubble process in the (relative) price of capital. Our results show that bubbles account for a significant amount of variance in key macroeconomic variables and are as important as investment-specific shocks in explaining total variation. Further, we show that a bursting bubble creates large and long-lasting real effects. In particular, we find large effects on government debt that persist for several years.

Suggested Citation

  • Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Bubbles over the U.S. business cycle: A macroeconometric approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 27-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:27-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.02.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Larin, Benjamin, 2016. "Bubble-driven business cycles," Working Papers 143, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    2. Chen, Mei-Ping & Lin, Yu-Hui & Tseng, Chun-Yao & Chen, Wen-Yi, 2015. "Bubbles in health care: Evidence from the U.S., U.K., and German stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-205.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2016. "Asset price bubbles and economic welfare," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 139-148.
    4. Larin, Benjamin, 2016. "A Quantitative Model of Bubble-Driven Business Cycles," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145817, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian methods; Bubbles; Financial frictions; Monetary and fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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