Speculative bubbles and financial crisis
Why are asset prices so much more volatile and so often detached from their fundamentals? Why does the burst of financial bubbles depress the real economy? This paper addresses these questions by constructing an infinite-horizon heterogeneous-agent general-equilibrium model with speculative bubbles. We show that agents are willing to invest in asset bubbles even though they have positive probability to burst. We prove that any storable goods, regardless of their intrinsic values, may give birth to bubbles with market prices far exceeding their fundamental values. We also show that perceived changes in the bubbles probability to bust can generate boom-bust cycles and produce asset price movements that are many times more volatile than the economy's fundamentals, as in the data.
|Date of creation:||2009|
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- Kocherlakota, N.R., 1990.
"Bubbles and Constraints on Debt Accumulation,"
90-29, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
- John Kareken & Neil Wallace, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-222.
- Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2008.
"Competing Liquidities: Corporate Securities Real Bonds and Bubbles,"
IDEI Working Papers
506, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2008. "Competing Liquidities: Corporate Securities, Real Bonds and Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 13955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
- Patrick-Antoine Pintus & Yi Weng, 2009. "Leveraged financing, over investment, and boom-bust cycles," Working Papers halshs-00439245, HAL.
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