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Asset price bubbles and economic welfare

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Sharma, Susan Sunila
  • Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach

Abstract

In this paper, we provide the first empirical evidence on whether or not asset price bubbles predict economic welfare. Using a time-series model, we show that asset price bubbles both positively and negatively predict economic welfare, although the evidence that asset price bubbles are welfare-enhancing is much stronger. These results are also robust to out-of-sample forecasting as well as to a predictive regression model augmented by structural break dates.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2016. "Asset price bubbles and economic welfare," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 139-148.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:44:y:2016:i:c:p:139-148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.01.011
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    6. Riza Demirer & Guilherme Demos & Rangan Gupta & Didier Sornette, 2019. "On the predictability of stock market bubbles: evidence from LPPLS confidence multi-scale indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 843-858, May.
    7. Floro, Danvee, 2019. "Testing the predictive ability of house price bubbles for macroeconomic performance: A meta-analytic approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 164-181.
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    10. Riza Demirer & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Joshua Nielsen, 2023. "Gold-to-Platinum Price Ratio and the Predictability of Bubbles in Financial Markets," Working Papers 202317, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    13. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset price bubbles; Welfare; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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