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Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels

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  • Cerqueti, Roy
  • Costantini, Mauro

Abstract

This paper presents new results on the rational bubbles hypothesis for a panel of 18 OECD countries using the model developed by Campbell (2000). We provide an analysis of international data that exploits increased power deriving from the panel unit root and cointegration methodology, together with the flexibility of allowing explicitly for multiple endogenous structural breaks in the individual series. Differently from the time series methodology, the panel data approach allows for a global analysis of the financial crashes that are related to rational bubbles. We find strong evidence in favor of bubbles phenomena.

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  • Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro, 2011. "Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2598-2605, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:10:p:2598-2605
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    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    3. Fanelli, Viviana & Maddalena, Lucia, 2020. "A nonlinear dynamic model for credit risk contagion," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 45-58.
    4. Michele Costola & Massimiliano Caporin, 2016. "Rational Learning For Risk-Averse Investors By Conditioning On Behavioral Choices," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-26, March.
    5. Asako, Kazumi & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "A statistical model of speculative bubbles, with applications to the stock markets of the United States, Japan, and China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2639-2651.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2016. "Asset price bubbles and economic welfare," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 139-148.
    7. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng & Xie, Zixong, 2016. "Are there periodically collapsing bubbles in the stock markets? New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 442-451.
    8. Chen, Mei-Ping & Lin, Yu-Hui & Tseng, Chun-Yao & Chen, Wen-Yi, 2015. "Bubbles in health care: Evidence from the U.S., U.K., and German stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-205.
    9. Gutierrez, Luciano, 2011. "Bootstrapping asset price bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2488-2493.
    10. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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