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Structural Changes, Common Stochastic Trends, and Unit Roots in Panel Data

  • Jushan Bai
  • Josep Llu�s Carrion-I-Silvestre

This paper studies the problem of unit root testing in the presence of multiple structural changes and common dynamic factors. Structural breaks represent infrequent regime shifts, while dynamic factors capture common shocks underlying the comovement of economic time series. We examine the modified Sargan-Bhargava (MSB) test in the panel data setting and propose ways to handle multiple structural changes and dynamic factors. Properties of the MSB test under these non-standard conditions are derived. For example, the test statistics are shown to be invariant, in the limit, to mean breaks. This invariance does not carry over to breaks in linear trends, where the test statistics will converge to functionals of weighted Brownian bridges. A simplified test statistic is then proposed, which is invariant to both mean and trend breaks. We further study pooled test statistic based on standardization and combination of p-values. Response surfaces for p-values of all test statistics are computed to facilitate the empirical implementation of the proposed methodology. The pooled tests are shown to have good finite sample performance. Copyright , Wiley-Blackwell.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00530.x
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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 471-501

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Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:76:y:2009:i:2:p:471-501
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  1. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-76, April.
  2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  3. Alan Bartley, William & Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C., 2001. "Testing the null of cointegration in the presence of a structural break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 315-323, December.
  4. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  5. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  6. Junsoo Lee & Mark Strazicich, 2001. "Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of a structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-382.
  7. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2007. "Testing for trend," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  9. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  10. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A New Look at Panel Testing of Stationarity and the PPP Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive 467, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  11. Jerome Adda & Jesus Gonzalo, 1995. "P-Values for Non-Standard Distributions with an Application to the DF Test," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 61, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  12. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2002. "Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test. An application to the rate of unemployment," Working Papers in Economics 79, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  13. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  14. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  15. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
  16. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  18. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  19. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  20. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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  23. repec:cep:stiecm:/1998/365 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  25. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
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