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Taking a New Contour: A Novel Approach to Panel Unit Root Tests

  • Chang, Yoosoon

    (Rice U)

The paper introduces a novel approach to testing for unit roots in panels. Following Chang and Park (2004), the approach takes a new contour that is drawn along the line given by the equi-squared-sum instead of the traditional one given by the equi-sample-size. As we show in the paper, the distributions of the unit root tests based on nonlinear IV t-ratios (which includes the Dickey-Fuller test as a special case) are asymptotically normal along the new contour. The normal asymptotics hold under both the null of a unit root and the local-to-unity alternative. Moreover, they are applicable also for the models with intercept, as long as is used the demeaning method relying only on the past information. Subsequently, we demonstrate that this startling finding may be exploited to invent tools and methodologies for the effective inferences in panel unit root models. In particular, our theory implies that the individual tests may be regarded asymptotically as normal samples if they are computed using the samples having the same sum of squares across all cross-sectional units, which may be obtained through the standard bootstrap method. Consequently, we may conveniently use various functionals of the individual tests to do valid inferences in panels.

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Paper provided by Rice University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2004-05.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecl:riceco:2004-05
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  1. Danny Quah, 1993. "Exploiting Cross Section Variation for Unit Root Inference in Dynamic Data," FMG Discussion Papers dp171, Financial Markets Group.
  2. repec:att:wimass:9208 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  4. Jun Yu & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "A Gaussian approach for continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 3.
  5. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Park, 2002. "On The Asymptotics Of Adf Tests For Unit Roots," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 431-447.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  7. Phillips, Peter C. B. & Park, Joon Y. & Chang, Yoosoon, 2004. "Nonlinear instrumental variable estimation of an autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 219-246.
  8. Rustam Ibragimov & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2004. "Regression Asymptotics Using Martingale Convergence Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1473, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 261-292, October.
  10. Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  11. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
  12. So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 1999. "Cauchy Estimators For Autoregressive Processes With Applications To Unit Root Tests And Confidence Intervals," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(02), pages 165-176, April.
  13. Park, Joon, 2002. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 2003-04, Rice University, Department of Economics.
  14. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 519, Boston College Department of Economics.
  15. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  16. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  17. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 269-298, June.
  18. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, 07.
  19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
  20. Yoosoon Chang, 2000. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1585, Econometric Society.
  21. So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 2001. "An invariant sign test for random walks based on recursive median adjustment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 197-229, June.
  22. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  23. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  24. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
  25. Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994. "Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
  26. Campbell, Bryan & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 151-73, February.
  27. So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 1999. "Recursive mean adjustment in time-series inferences," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 65-73, May.
  28. Yoosoon Chang & Wonho Song, 2002. "Panel Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependency and Heterogeneity," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B5-2, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  29. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  30. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
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