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What would Nelson and Plosser find had they used panel unit root tests?

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  • Christophe Hurlin

    () (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this study, we systemically apply nine recent panel unit root tests to the same fourteen macroeconomic and financial series as those considered in the seminal paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982). The data cover OECD countries from 1950 to 2003. Our results clearly point out the difficulty that applied econometricians would face when they want to get a simple and clear-cut diagnosis with panel unit root tests. We confirm the fact that panel methods must be very carefully used for testing unit roots in macroeconomic or financial panels. More precisely, we find mitigated results under the cross-sectional independence assumption, since the unit root hypothesis is rejected for many macroeconomic variables. When international cross-correlations are taken into account, conclusions depend on the specification of these cross-sectional dependencies. Two groups of tests can be distinguished. The first group tests are based on a dynamic factor structure or an error component model. In this case, the non stationarity of common factors (international business cycles or growth trends) is not rejected, but the results are less clear with respect to idiosyncratic components. The second group tests are based on more general specifications. Their results are globally more favourable to the unit root assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "What would Nelson and Plosser find had they used panel unit root tests?," Working Papers halshs-00156685, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00156685
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00156685
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2010. "Panel Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependencies: Comparison and Implications for Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 111-145, April.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    4. Im, K.S. & Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "On The Panel Unit Root Tests Using Nonlinear Instrumental Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0347, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    Keywords

    Panel Unit Root Tests;

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