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A New Look at Panel Testing of Stationarity and the PPP Hypothesis

  • Jushan Bai
  • Serena Ng

This paper uses a decomposition of the data into common and idiosyncratic components to develop procedures that test if these components satisfy the null hypothesis of stationarity The decomposition also allows us to construct pooled tests that satisfy the cross-section independence assumption In simulations tests on the components separately generally have better properties than testing the observed series However the results are less than satisfactory especially in comparison with similar procedures developed for unit root tests The problem can be traced to the properties of the stationarity test and is not due to the weakness of the common-idiosyncratic decomposition We apply both panel stationarity and unit root tests to real exchange rates We found evidence in support of a large stationary common factor Rejections of PPP are likely due to non-stationarity of country-specific variations

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 467.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:467
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  1. Quah, D., 1993. "Exploiting Cross Section Variation for Unit Root Inference in Dynamic Data," Papers 549, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  3. Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1996. "An Autoregressive Spectral Density Estimator at Frequency Zero for Nonstationarity Tests," Cahiers de recherche 9611, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  4. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  5. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 2004. "Generalizations of the KPSS-test for stationarity," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 483-502.
  6. Jansson, Michael, 2004. "Stationarity Testing With Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 56-94, February.
  7. Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  10. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2007. "Testing for trend," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  12. Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1994. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Cahiers de recherche 9427, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  13. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  14. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  15. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  16. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  17. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  18. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994. "A Consistent Test for a Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-66, April.
  19. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  20. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February.
  21. Banerjee, Anindya & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2002. "Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 13, Royal Economic Society.
  22. James G. MacKinnon, 1992. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit Roots and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 861, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  23. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  24. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  25. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  26. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1999. "Long-run purchasing power parity with short-run data: evidence with a null hypothesis of stationarity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 751-768, October.
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