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World market risk, country-specific risk and expected returns in international stock markets

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  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Cakici, Nusret

Abstract

This paper determines whether the world market risk, country-specific total risk, and country-specific idiosyncratic risk are priced in an international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM). Portfolio-level analyses, country-level cross-sectional regressions, stacked time-series, and pooled panel regressions indicate that the world market risk is not, but country-specific total and idiosyncratic risks are significantly priced in an ICAPM framework with partial integration. This result is robust to different methods for estimating risk measures, different investment horizons, and after controlling for the countries' aggregate dividend yield, earnings-to-price ratios, inflation risk, exchange rate uncertainties, aggregate volatility risk, and past return characteristics. The main findings turn out to be insensitive to the choice of one-factor vs. multifactor models used to estimate systematic and idiosyncratic risk measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2010. "World market risk, country-specific risk and expected returns in international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1152-1165, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1152-1165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hooy Chee-Wooi & Robert D. Brooks, 2015. "The Components of Systematic Risk and Their Determinants in The Malaysian Equity Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 151-176.
    2. Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro, 2011. "Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2598-2605, October.
    3. Pithak Srisuksai, 2012. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 19(2), pages 66-89, December.
    4. Thapa, Chandra & Paudyal, Krishna & Neupane, Suman, 2013. "Access to information and international portfolio allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2255-2267.
    5. Hueng, C. James & Yau, Ruey, 2013. "Country-specific idiosyncratic risk and global equity index returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 326-337.
    6. Hueng, C. James, 2014. "Are global systematic risk and country-specific idiosyncratic risk priced in the integrated world markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 28-38.
    7. Peterson, David R. & Smedema, Adam R., 2011. "The return impact of realized and expected idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2547-2558, October.
    8. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte & Savva, Christos S., 2016. "Risk-return trade-off for European stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 84-103.
    9. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    10. Chiang, Thomas C. & Li, Huimin & Zheng, Dazhi, 2015. "The intertemporal risk-return relationship: Evidence from international markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 156-180.
    11. Berger, Tino & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2013. "Measuring time-varying financial market integration: An unobserved components approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 463-473.
    12. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-26, April.
    13. Jacobs, Kris & Pallage, Stéphane & Robe, Michel A., 2013. "Market incompleteness and the equity premium puzzle: Evidence from state-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 378-388.
    14. Chiang, Thomas C. & Chen, Xiaoyu, 2016. "Stock returns and economic fundamentals in an emerging market: An empirical investigation of domestic and global market forces," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 107-120.
    15. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Timmermann, Allan, 2012. "Do return prediction models add economic value?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2974-2987.
    16. Nusret Cakici & Isil Erol & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 2014. "Tracking the Evolution of Idiosyncratic Risk and Cross-Sectional Expected Returns for US REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 415-440, April.
    17. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:35-:d:138061 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Sabbaghi, Omid, 2011. "Asymmetric volatility and trading volume: The G5 evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 169-181.
    19. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "An international CAPM for partially integrated markets: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2473-2493.
    20. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2016. "Stock returns and economic forces—An empirical investigation of Chinese markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 45-65.

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