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Contagion as Domino Effect in Global Stock Markets

  • Markwat, T.D.
  • Kole, H.J.W.G.
  • van Dijk, D.J.C.

This paper shows that stock market contagion operates through a domino effect, where small crashes evolve into more severe crashes. Using a novel unifying framework we model the occurrence of local, regional and global crashes in terms of past occurrences of these different crashes and financial variables. We find convincing evidence that global crashes do not occur abruptly but are preceded by local and regional crashes. Additionally, interest rates, bond returns and volatility affect the probabilities of different crash types, indicating interdependence. We show that in forecasting global crashes our model outperforms a binomial model for global crashes only.

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File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/13835/ERS-2008-071-FA.pdf
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Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam in its series ERIM Report Series Research in Management with number ERS-2008-071-F&A.

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Date of creation: 05 Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:13835
Contact details of provider: Postal: RSM Erasmus University & Erasmus School of Economics, PoBox 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam
Phone: 31-10-408 1182
Fax: 31-10-408 9020
Web page: http://www.erim.eur.nl/
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