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'Slow-burn' spillover and 'fast and furious' contagion: a study of international stock markets

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  • Lei Wu
  • Qingbin Meng
  • Kuan Xu

Abstract

'Fast and furious' contagion across capital markets is an important phenomenon in an increasingly integrated financial world. Different from 'slow-burn' spillover or interdependence among these markets, 'fast and furious' contagion can occur instantly. To investigate this kind of contagion from the US, Japan and Hong Kong to other Asian economies, we design a research strategy to capture fundamental interdependence, or 'slow-burn' spillover, among these stock markets as well as short-term departures from this interdependence. Based on these departures, we propose a new contagion measure which reveals how one market responds over time to a shock in another market. We also propose international portfolio analysis for contagion via variance decomposition from the portfolio manager's perspective. Using this research strategy, we find that the US stock market was cointegrated with the Asian stock markets during four specific periods from 3 July 1997 to 30 April 2014. Beyond this fundamental interdependence, the shocks from both Japan and Hong Kong have significant 'fast and furious' contagion effects on other Asian stock markets during the US subprime crisis, but the shocks from the US have no such effects.

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  • Lei Wu & Qingbin Meng & Kuan Xu, 2015. "'Slow-burn' spillover and 'fast and furious' contagion: a study of international stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 933-958, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:15:y:2015:i:6:p:933-958
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2014.952242
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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2021. "Global and Regional Financial Integration in Emerging Asia: Evidence from Stock Markets," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 36(2), pages 185-202.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Kefei You, 2017. "Stock Market Integration in Asia: Global or Regional? Evidence from Industry Level Panel Convergence Tests," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1669, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Lei Wu & Qingbin Meng & Kuan Xu, 2015. "'Slow-burn' spillover and 'fast and furious' contagion: a study of international stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 933-958, June.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Kefei You, 2019. "Stock market linkages between the ASEAN countries, China and the US: a fractional cointegration approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 7537, CESifo.

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