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Expected Volatility, Unexpected Volatility, And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns

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  • Choong Tze Chua
  • Jeremy Goh
  • Zhe Zhang

Abstract

Abstract The existing literature finds conflicting results on the cross-sectional relation between expected returns and idiosyncratic volatility. We contend that at the firm level, the sample correlation between unexpected returns and expected idiosyncratic volatility can cloud the true relation between the expected return and expected idiosyncratic volatility. We show strong evidence that unexpected idiosyncratic volatility is positively related to unexpected returns. Using unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns, we find expected idiosyncratic volatility to be significantly and positively related to expected returns. This result holds after controlling for various firm characteristics, and it is robust across different sample periods. Copyright (c) 2010 The Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.

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  • Choong Tze Chua & Jeremy Goh & Zhe Zhang, 2010. "Expected Volatility, Unexpected Volatility, And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 103-123.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:33:y:2010:i:2:p:103-123
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miralles-Marcelo, José Luis & Miralles-Quirós, María del Mar & Miralles-Quirós, José Luis, 2012. "Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk: The Spanish case," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 261-271.
    2. Yang, Lisa (Zongfei) & Goh, Jeremy & Chiyachantana, Chiraphol, 2016. "Valuation uncertainty, market sentiment and the informativeness of institutional trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 81-98.
    3. Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen, 2012. "Idiosyncratic risk and expected returns in frontier markets: Evidence from GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 538-554.
    4. Jain, Ajeet & Strobl, Sascha, 2017. "The effect of volatility persistence on excess returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 58-63.
    5. Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & Nathan Mauck & Greg Stevenson, 2013. "Predicting Extreme Returns And Portfolio Management Implications," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 471-492, December.
    6. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Wu, Ji & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "Does idiosyncratic volatility matter in emerging markets? Evidence from China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 137-160.
    7. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    8. Cotter, John & Sullivan, Niall O' & Rossi, Francesco, 2015. "The conditional pricing of systematic and idiosyncratic risk in the UK equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 184-193.
    9. Peterson, David R. & Smedema, Adam R., 2011. "The return impact of realized and expected idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2547-2558, October.
    10. Mu-Shun Wang, 2013. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Expected Stock Returns for Exploring the Relationship with Panel Threshold Regression," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(2), pages 113-129, May.
    11. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    12. Shi, Yanlin & Liu, Wai-Man & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2016. "Public news arrival and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 159-172.

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