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Idiosyncratic risk and expected returns in frontier markets: Evidence from GCC

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  • Bley, Jorg
  • Saad, Mohsen

Abstract

We investigate the pricing of idiosyncratic volatility of seven frontier markets in six GCC countries. We find a significant (marginal) negative relationship between expected returns and lagged idiosyncratic volatility for individual stocks in Saudi Arabia (Qatar) but none in Kuwait and Abu Dhabi. However, when we estimate conditional idiosyncratic volatility either by EGARCH or AR Models, the relationship turns positive. Introducing unexpected idiosyncratic volatility as an explanatory variable to control for any unexpected returns uncovers the true relationship between expected idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns. The evidence turns out to be robust for return reversals and other control variables. Moreover, the pricing of idiosyncratic risk is less evident in higher country governance and seems to be unrelated to the degree of financial development.

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  • Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen, 2012. "Idiosyncratic risk and expected returns in frontier markets: Evidence from GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 538-554.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:3:p:538-554
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.01.004
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    7. Al-Hadi, Ahmed & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Hussain, Syed Mujahid & Taylor, Grantley, 2019. "Market risk disclosures and corporate governance structure: Evidence from GCC financial firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 136-150.
    8. Alqahtani, Jubran & Duong, Lien & Taylor, Grantley & Eulaiwi, Baban, 2022. "Outside directors, firm life cycle, corporate financial decisions and firm performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
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    10. Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Idiosyncratic risk; Expected stock returns; GCC markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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