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An empirical investigation of asset price bubbles in Latin American emerging financial markets

  • L. Sarno
  • M. P. Taylor

A generally accepted view among researchers and policy makers is that large capital flows to Latin America starting from the second half of the 1980s through the 1990s may have caused speculative bubbles in the asset markets of recipient economies. This article tests for asset price bubbles in the stock markets of six Latin American countries using data for the last 10 years or so. It employs recently developed robust estimation techniques which are specifically designed to exploit the skewness and leptokurtosis that bubbles may engender in the data. It finds massive deviations from normality in both stock prices and dividends series and the test results provide strong evidence for the existence of stock price bubbles in each of the markets examined.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100210124597
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2003)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
Pages: 635-643

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:9:p:635-643
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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  3. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
  4. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J, 1996. "The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 51-77, January.
  5. Im, K.S., 1996. "Least Square Approach to Non-Normal Disturbances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9603, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  7. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  8. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
  9. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 300., Boston College Department of Economics.
  11. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
  12. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 1998. "Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 221-228, November.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
  14. D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau & Donald J. Mathieson & Morris Goldstein & Liliana Rojas-Suárez & José Saúl Lizondo & Timothy D. Lane, 1991. "Determinants and Systemic Consequences of International Capital Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 77, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Razin, A & Sadka, E & Yuen, C-W, 1997. "A Pecking Order of Capital Inflows and International Tax Principles," Papers 12-97, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  16. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1148-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
  18. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1993. "Efficient Estimation with Orthogonal Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 687-687, August.
  19. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "The Persistence of Capital Inflows and the Behaviour of Stock Prices in East Asia Emerging Markets: Some Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
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