IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v35y2011i3p572-587.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International fund investment and local market returns

Author

Listed:
  • Jinjarak, Yothin
  • Wongswan, Jon
  • Zheng, Huanhuan

Abstract

International fund investment in bonds and equities is characterized by a positive association between current net inflows and contemporaneous and past market returns: positive-feedback trading, while being possibly profitable for international fund investors, could be destabilizing for the underlying markets. Allowing for interactions between equity investment and bond investment, our panel vector autoregression shows that past equity returns contain useful information in forecasting equity and bond flows and that bond flows impact future equity returns positively.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinjarak, Yothin & Wongswan, Jon & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2011. "International fund investment and local market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 572-587, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:3:p:572-587
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(10)00128-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2004. "Are Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 641-657, August.
    3. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    5. Smith, Katherine A. & Valderrama, Diego, 2009. "The composition of capital inflows when emerging market firms face financing constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 223-234, July.
    6. Paolo Mauro, 2007. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect Against "Sudden Stops"?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 389-411, September.
    7. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    8. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1998. "A pecking order of capital inflows and international tax principles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 45-68, February.
    9. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    10. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2008. "Home Bias at the Fund Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 333-338, May.
    11. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    12. R. Gaston Gelos & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2987-3020, December.
    13. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    14. Broner, Fernando A. & Gaston Gelos, R. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2006. "When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 203-230, June.
    15. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard K. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 113-134, October.
    16. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    17. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    18. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," Staff Working Papers 04-42, Bank of Canada.
    19. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
    20. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    21. Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 22-51, March.
    22. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. " International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    23. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
    24. Rakowski, David & Wang, Xiaoxin, 2009. "The dynamics of short-term mutual fund flows and returns: A time-series and cross-sectional investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2102-2109, November.
    25. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    26. De Santis, Roberto A. & Lührmann, Melanie, 2009. "On the determinants of net international portfolio flows: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 880-901, September.
    27. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    28. Kalok Chan & Vicentiu Covrig & Lilian Ng, 2005. "What Determines the Domestic Bias and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1495-1534, June.
    29. Richards, Anthony, 2005. "Big Fish in Small Ponds: The Trading Behavior and Price Impact of Foreign Investors in Asian Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 1-27, March.
    30. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laux, Paul A., 2009. "Portfolio flows, volatility and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 271-292, March.
    31. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    32. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 937-971, April.
    33. Warther, Vincent A., 1995. "Aggregate mutual fund flows and security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 209-235.
    34. Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang & Wang, Zijun, 2009. "The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 670-680, April.
    35. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2007. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 1-30.
    36. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    37. Panchenko, Valentyn & Wu, Eliza, 2009. "Time-varying market integration and stock and bond return concordance in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1014-1021, June.
    38. Aneel Keswani & David Stolin, 2008. "Which Money Is Smart? Mutual Fund Buys and Sells of Individual and Institutional Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 85-118, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Broto, Carmen & Díaz-Cassou, Javier & Erce, Aitor, 2011. "Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows to emerging countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1941-1953, August.
    2. repec:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9469-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Porras, Eva & Ülkü, Numan, 2015. "Foreigners’ trading and stock returns in Spain," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-126.
    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Yu-Pei Ke, 2014. "Testing Price Pressure, Information, Feedback Trading, And Smoothing Effects For Energy Exchange Traded Funds," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-26.
    5. Alejandro Jara & Eduardo Olaberría, 2013. "Are all Capital Inflows Associated with Booms in House Prices? An Empirical Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 696, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:97-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:hur:ijarbs:v:8:y:2018:i:7:p:172-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ülkü, Numan & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Identifying the interaction between stock market returns and trading flows of investor types: Looking into the day using daily data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2733-2749.
    9. Ülkü, Numan & Karpova, Yekaterina, 2014. "Do international equity investors rebalance to manage currency exposure? A study of Greece foreign investor flows data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 150-169.
    10. Tim A Kroencke & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2015. "Global Asset Allocation Shifts," BIS Working Papers 497, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice O. & Jean Louis, Rosmy & Vo, Tuan Kiet, 2015. "The transmission of market shocks and bilateral linkages: Evidence from emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 349-357.
    12. Jinjarak, Yothin & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2014. "Granular institutional investors and global market interdependence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 61-81.
    13. Maria Sole Pagliari & Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, 2017. "The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants," Departmental Working Papers 201710, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    14. Balli, Faruk & Hajhoj, Hassan Rafdan & Basher, Syed Abul & Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem, 2015. "An analysis of returns and volatility spillovers and their determinants in emerging Asian and Middle Eastern countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 311-325.
    15. Numan Ülkü & Petar Petrov, 2015. "How Reliable Are the Findings of ‘Foreign’ Investor Studies That Use TIC Data? A Look from the Host Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 521-553, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:3:p:572-587. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.