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Identifying the Interaction between Foreign Investor Flows and Emerging Stock Market Returns

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  • Numan Ülkü
  • Enzo Weber

Abstract

We introduce the structural conditional correlation (SCC) methodology to the foreign flows literature to identify the contemporaneous return–flow interaction and provide new evidence using the first daily data from a sizeable European emerging market and comparing to Asian markets. SCC results indicate significant bilateral intraday interaction between net foreign flows and market returns, and the presence of their latent common drivers. Allowing for these effects alters previously uniform results of positive feedback trading for some Asian markets, as well as the price impact estimates. Foreigners display a sluggish response to global information, which cannot be attributed to their information disadvantage.

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  • Numan Ülkü & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Identifying the Interaction between Foreign Investor Flows and Emerging Stock Market Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1541-1581.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:18:y:2014:i:4:p:1541-1581.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mahata, Ajit & Rai, Anish & Nurujjaman, Md. & Prakash, Om, 2021. "Modeling and analysis of the effect of COVID-19 on the stock price: V and L-shape recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    4. Özgür Özel & Mustafa Utku Özmen & Erdal Yılmaz, 2021. "Foreign investor dominance and low domestic investor absorption capacity: Implications on capital outflows," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4361-4371, July.
    5. Ülkü, Numan & Rogers, Madeline, 2018. "Who drives the Monday effect?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 46-65.
    6. Ülkü, Numan & Fatullayev, Sabutay & Diachenko, Daria, 2016. "Can risk-rebalancing explain the negative correlation between stock return differential and currency? Or, does source status drive it?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-54.
    7. Rai, Anish & Mahata, Ajit & Nurujjaman, Md & Majhi, Sushovan & Debnath, Kanish, 2022. "A sentiment-based modeling and analysis of stock price during the COVID-19: U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    8. Porras, Eva & Ülkü, Numan, 2015. "Foreigners’ trading and stock returns in Spain," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-126.
    9. Xichen Wang & Cheng Yan, 2022. "Does the Relative Importance of the Push and Pull Factors of Foreign Capital Flows Vary Across Quantiles?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 252-299, June.
    10. Múnera, Daimer J. & Agudelo, Diego A., 2022. "Who moved my liquidity? Liquidity evaporation in emerging markets in periods of financial uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Boubekeur Baba & Güven Sevil, 2021. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    12. Yan, Cheng & Wang, Xichen, 2018. "The non-persistent relationship between foreign equity flows and emerging stock market returns across quantiles," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 38-54.

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