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The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows

  • Geert Bekaert
  • Campbell R. Harvey
  • Robin L. Lumsdaine

We study the interrelationship between capital flows, returns, dividend yields and world interest rates in 20 emerging markets. We estimate a vector autoregressionn with these variables to measure the degree to which lower interest rates contribute to increased capital flows and shocks in flows affect the cost of capital among other dynamic relations. We precede the VAR analysis by a detailed examination of endogenous break points in capital flows and the other variables. These structural breaks are traced to the liberalization of emerging equity markets. Our evidence of structural breaks call into question past research which estimates VAR models over the full sample. After a liberalization, we find that equity flows increase by 1.4% of market capitalization. We also show that shocks in equity flows initially increase returns which is consistent with a price pressure hypothesis. While the effect is diminished over time, there also appears to be a permenant impact. This is consistent with our finding that our proxy for the cost of capital, dividend yields, decreases. Finally, our analysis of the transitition dynamics from pre-liberalization to post-liberalization suggests that when capital leaves, it leaves faster than it came in. These results may help us understand the dynamics of the recent crises in Latin America and East Asia.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7219.

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Date of creation: Jul 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7219
Note: AP IFM
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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "Contagion, Globalization, and the Volatility of Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 15-41 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 6530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1998. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 6669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04.
  8. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
  9. Linda L. Tesar & Ingrid M. Werner, 1994. "International Equity Transactions and U.S. Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 4611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & DEC, 1994. "The new wave of private capital inflows : push or pull?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1312, The World Bank.
  11. John Clark & Elizabeth Berko, 1997. "Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico," Staff Reports 24, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
  13. Leonardo Bartolini & Allan Drazen, 1996. "Capital Account Liberalization as a Signal," NBER Working Papers 5725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
  15. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 4590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
  18. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
  19. Hyuk Choe & Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 1998. "Do Foreign Investors Destabilize Stock Markets? The Korean Experience in 1997," NBER Working Papers 6661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, 07.
  21. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
  22. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  23. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 1999. "The Dynamics of Emerging Market Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  25. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  26. Warther, Vincent A., 1995. "Aggregate mutual fund flows and security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 209-235.
  27. Tesar, Linda L & Werner, Ingrid M, 1995. "U.S. Equity Investment in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 109-29, January.
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