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Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico

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  • John Clark
  • Elizabeth Berko

Abstract

We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that a 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock prices. We explore whether this correlation might be explained by permanent reductions in conditional expected returns resulting from expansion of the investor base along the lines modeled by Merton (1987), or correlations with other factors causing returns, price pressures, or positive feedback strategies by foreign investors, and conclude that the available evidence is consistent with the base-broadening hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • John Clark & Elizabeth Berko, 1997. "Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico," Staff Reports 24, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    2. Gülfen TUNA & Samet KUNDAKÇIOĞLU, 2016. "Investigation of relation between foreign portfolio investments and stock prices: Time varying asymmetric causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 127-134, Summer.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    5. repec:eee:ememar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:102-139 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Porras, Eva & Ülkü, Numan, 2015. "Foreigners’ trading and stock returns in Spain," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-126.
    7. Mu-Fen Chao & Shing-Yau Chen, 2012. "A Study of Factors Influencing Foreign Share Holdings in the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 153-170, January.
    8. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    9. Mu-Fen Chao & Shing-Yau Chen, 2012. "A Study of Factors Influencing Foreign Share Holdings in the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 153-170, January.
    10. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    11. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:202-206 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Daniel Hartmann & Christian Pierdzioch, 2007. "International equity flows and the predictability of US stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 583-599.
    13. Poonam Gupta & James P. F. Gordon, 2003. "Portfolio Flows Into India; Do Domestic Fundamentals Matter?," IMF Working Papers 03/20, International Monetary Fund.
    14. repec:wsi:rpbfmp:v:09:y:2006:i:01:n:s021909150600063x is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Luciana Reis & Roberto Meurer & Sergio Da Silva, 2010. "Stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(17), pages 1351-1361.
    16. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    17. French, Joseph J. & Naka, Atsuyuki, 2013. "Dynamic relationships among equity flows, equity returns and dividends: Behavior of U.S. investors in China and India," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 13-29.
    18. David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2003. "The Dynamics of REIT Capital Flows and Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 405-434, September.
    19. Ülkü, Numan & Karpova, Yekaterina, 2014. "Do international equity investors rebalance to manage currency exposure? A study of Greece foreign investor flows data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 150-169.
    20. Pantisa Pavabutr & Hong Yan, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Portfolio Flows on Emerging Market Volatility: Evidence from Thailand," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(2), pages 345-368, December.

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    Keywords

    Investments; Foreign ; Stock - Prices ; Mexico;

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