IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v574y2021ics0378437121002806.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling and analysis of the effect of COVID-19 on the stock price: V and L-shape recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Mahata, Ajit
  • Rai, Anish
  • Nurujjaman, Md.
  • Prakash, Om

Abstract

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, a new and novel risk factor, leads to the stock price crash due to the investors’ rapid and synchronous sell-off. However, within a short period, the quality sectors start recovering from the bottom. A stock price model has been developed to capture the price dynamics during shock and recovery phases of such crisis. The main variable and parameter of the model are the net fund flow (Ψt) due to institutional investors, and financial antifragility (ϕ) of a company, respectively. We assume that during the crash, the stock price fall is independent of the ϕ. We study the effects of shock length (TS) and ϕ on the stock price during the crisis period using the Ψt obtained from both the synthetic fund flow data and real fund flow data. We observed that the possibility of recovery of stock with ϕ>0, termed as quality stock, decreases with an increase in TS beyond a specific period. A quality stock with higher ϕ shows V-shape recovery and outperform others. The TS and recovery period of quality stock are almost equal in the Indian market. Financially stressed stocks, i.e., the stocks with ϕ<0, show L-shape recovery during the pandemic. The stock data and model analysis show that the investors, in the uncertainty like COVID-19, invest in the quality stocks to restructure their portfolio to reduce the risk. The study may help the investors to make the right investment decision during a crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahata, Ajit & Rai, Anish & Nurujjaman, Md. & Prakash, Om, 2021. "Modeling and analysis of the effect of COVID-19 on the stock price: V and L-shape recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:574:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121002806
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437121002806
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2021.126008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Numan Ülkü & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Identifying the Interaction between Foreign Investor Flows and Emerging Stock Market Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1541-1581.
    2. Topcu, Mert & Gulal, Omer Serkan, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. N. N. Taleb & R. Douady, 2013. "Mathematical definition, mapping, and detection of (anti)fragility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1677-1689, November.
    4. Cao, Charles & Chang, Eric C. & Wang, Ying, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between mutual fund flow and market return volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2111-2123, October.
    5. Darren D. Lee & Robert W. Faff, 2009. "Corporate Sustainability Performance and Idiosyncratic Risk: A Global Perspective," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 213-237, May.
    6. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Kevin Rageth & René M. Stulz, 2020. "How Valuable is Financial Flexibility When Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-37, Swiss Finance Institute.
    7. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2013. "The other side of value: The gross profitability premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-28.
    8. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    9. Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," Working Paper Series 2020-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Kling, Gerhard & Gao, Lei, 2008. "Chinese institutional investors' sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 374-387, October.
    11. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    12. Sun, Licheng & Najand, Mohammad & Shen, Jiancheng, 2016. "Stock return predictability and investor sentiment: A high-frequency perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-164.
    13. Glossner, Simon & Matos, Pedro Pinto & Ramelli, Stefano & Wagner, Alexander F, 2020. "Where do institutional investors seek shelter when disaster strikes? Evidence from COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
    16. Bhandari, Laxmi Chand, 1988. " Debt/Equity Ratio and Expected Common Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 507-528, June.
    17. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    18. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    19. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    20. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
    21. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    22. Simon Glossner & Pedro Matos & Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F. Wagner, 2020. "Where Do Institutional Investors Seek Shelter when Disaster Strikes? Evidence from COVID-19," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-56, Swiss Finance Institute.
    23. Gualdi, Stanislao & Tarzia, Marco & Zamponi, Francesco & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2015. "Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 29-61.
    24. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    25. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Colliard, Jean-Edouard, 2013. "Catching falling knives: speculating on market overreaction," Working Paper Series 1545, European Central Bank.
    27. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8166, CESifo.
    28. Norden E. Huang & Man‐Li Wu & Wendong Qu & Steven R. Long & Samuel S. P. Shen, 2003. "Applications of Hilbert–Huang transform to non‐stationary financial time series analysis," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 245-268, July.
    29. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    30. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1987. "Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, January.
    31. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    33. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    34. Charest, Guy, 1978. "Dividend information, stock returns and market efficiency-II," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 297-330.
    35. Mahata, Ajit & Bal, Debi Prasad & Nurujjaman, Md, 2020. "Identification of short-term and long-term time scales in stock markets and effect of structural break," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    36. N. N. Taleb & Raphaël Douady, 2013. "Mathematical Definition, Mapping, and Detection of (Anti)fragility," Post-Print hal-01052645, HAL.
    37. Noelia Romero Castro & Juan Piñeiro Chousa, 2006. "An integrated framework for the financial analysis of sustainability," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 322-333, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2021. "The quest for multidimensional financial immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Nageri Kamaldeen Ibraheem & Abdulkadir Rihanat Idowu, 2019. "Is the Nigerian Stock Market Efficient? Pre and Post 2007-2009 Meltdown Analysis," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 38-63, September.
    4. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    5. Kevin Primicerio & Damien Challet & Stanislao Gualdi, 2021. "Collective rationality and functional wisdom of the crowd in far-from-rational institutional investors," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 153-171, January.
    6. Chaker Aloui & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "On the detection of extreme movements and persistent behaviour in Mediterranean stock markets: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2611-2622, August.
    7. Kin-Boon Tang & Shao-Jye Wong & Shih-Kuei Lin & Szu-Lang Liao, 2020. "Excess volatility and market efficiency in government bond markets: the ASEAN-5 context," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 154-165, March.
    8. Elzbieta Kacperska & Jakub Kraciuk, 2021. "The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Stock Market of Agri-food Companies in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 274-290.
    9. repec:gam:jftint:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:20-:d:70227 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "A Test Of The Efficiency Of The Foreign Exchange Market In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 0(12th BMEB), pages 1-26, January.
    11. Vasilios Sogiakas, 2017. "Efficiency of the UK Stock Exchange," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 51-69.
    12. Dobson, Peter, 2020. "ETFs tracking errors on global markets with consideration of regional diversity," MPRA Paper 103695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pierluigi Vellucci, 2021. "A critique of financial neoliberalism: a perspective combining multidisciplinary methods and commodity markets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-11, March.
    14. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    15. Hooi Hooi Lean & Fabio Pizzutilo, 2021. "Performances and risk of socially responsible investments across regions during crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3556-3568, July.
    16. Matteo Burzoni & Frank Riedel & H. Mete Soner, 2021. "Viability and Arbitrage Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1207-1234, May.
    17. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    18. Muneer Shaik & S. Maheswaran, 2016. "Modelling the Paradox in Stock Markets by Variance Ratio Volatility Estimator that Utilises Extreme Values of Asset Prices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 15(3), pages 333-361, December.
    19. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    20. Bendik P. Andersen & Petter E. de Lange, 2021. "Efficiency in the Atlantic salmon futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 949-984, June.
    21. Mahata, Ajit & Bal, Debi Prasad & Nurujjaman, Md, 2020. "Identification of short-term and long-term time scales in stock markets and effect of structural break," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:574:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121002806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.