IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v32y2008i10p2111-2123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between mutual fund flow and market return volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Cao, Charles
  • Chang, Eric C.
  • Wang, Ying

Abstract

We study the dynamic relation between aggregate mutual fund flow and market-wide volatility. Using daily flow data and a VAR approach, we find that market volatility is negatively related to concurrent and lagged flow. A structural VAR impulse response analysis suggests that shock in flow has a negative impact on market volatility: An inflow (outflow) shock predicts a decline (an increase) in volatility. From the perspective of volatility-flow relation, we find evidence of volatility timing for recent period of 1998-2003. Finally, we document a differential impact of daily inflow versus outflow on intraday volatility. The relation between intraday volatility and inflow (outflow) becomes weaker (stronger) from morning to afternoon.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Charles & Chang, Eric C. & Wang, Ying, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between mutual fund flow and market return volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2111-2123, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2111-2123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(08)00012-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ippolito, Richard A, 1992. "Consumer Reaction to Measures of Poor Quality: Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-70, April.
    2. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    3. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    5. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    8. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    9. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    10. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    11. Edelen, Roger M. & Warner, Jerold B., 2001. "Aggregate price effects of institutional trading: a study of mutual fund flow and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 195-220, February.
    12. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    13. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    14. Busse, Jeffrey A, 1999. "Volatility Timing in Mutual Funds: Evidence from Daily Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1009-1041.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karkowska, Renata, 2013. "The empirical analysis of dynamic relationship between financial intermediary connections and market return volatility," MPRA Paper 58802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kim, Sei-Wan & Lee, Bong-Soo & Kim, Young-Min, 2014. "Who mimics whom in the equity fund market? Evidence from the Korean equity fund market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 199-218.
    3. Ferris, Stephen P. & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2009. "Agency costs, governance, and organizational forms: Evidence from the mutual fund industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 619-626, April.
    4. Watson, John & Wickramanayake, J., 2012. "The relationship between aggregate managed fund flows and share market returns in Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 451-472.
    5. Alexakis, Christos & Dasilas, Apostolos & Grose, Chris, 2013. "Asymmetric dynamic relations between stock prices and mutual fund units in Japan. An application of hidden cointegration technique," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-8.
    6. Rakowski, David & Wang, Xiaoxin, 2009. "The dynamics of short-term mutual fund flows and returns: A time-series and cross-sectional investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2102-2109, November.
    7. Dubofsky, David A., 2010. "Mutual fund portfolio trading and investor flow," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 802-812, April.
    8. Dötz, Niko & Weth, Mark, 2013. "Cash holdings of German open-end equity funds: Does ownership matter?," Discussion Papers 47/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Lee, Bong Soo & Paek, Miyoun & Ha, Yeonjeong & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2015. "The dynamics of market volatility, market return, and equity fund flow: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-227.
    10. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:176-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. David G. Shrider, 2009. "Running From a Bear: How Poor Stock Market Performance Affects the Determinants of Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7-8), pages 987-1006.
    12. Boldin, Michael & Cici, Gjergji, 2010. "The index fund rationality paradox," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 33-43, January.
    13. El-Masry, Ahmed A. & de Mingo-López, Diego Víctor & Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "Environmental conditions, fund characteristics, and Islamic orientation: An analysis of mutual fund performance for the MENA region," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 174-197.
    14. Badrinath, S.G. & Gubellini, S., 2011. "On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1762-1776, July.
    15. repec:aio:manmar:v:xv:y:2017:i:2:p:59-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Giambona, Erasmo & Golec, Joseph, 2009. "Mutual fund volatility timing and management fees," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 589-599, April.
    17. Paek, Miyoun & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2014. "Aggregate net flows, inflows, and outflows of equity funds: The U.S. versus Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 85-95.
    18. Kim, Ho-Yong & Kwon, Okyu & Oh, Gabjin, 2016. "A causality between fund performance and stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 439-450.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2111-2123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.