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Modeling the Demand for Emerging Market Assets

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  • Valpy FitzGerald
  • Derya Krolzig

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the aggregate international demand schedule for emerging market (EM) securities as an asset class. The standard ‘push-pull’ model of capital flows is modified by reference to recent work on portfolio choice in the context of credit rationing leading to a simultaneous equation model that determines EM yield and capital flows together. Interaction effects include lagged flows and yields to reflect herding and asset bubbles, with a time-varying risk aversion variable affecting yields and flows. This model is then tested on monthly data for US bond purchases, using the General-to-Specific Approach (GETS) to find significant variables, lags, and shock dummies for yield spread and bond flows separately; followed by a Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) estimation of the two equations together. The results are robust and give a very good fit for both yields and flows, contributing a valuable insight into the dominant impact of short-term shifts in the demand schedule on emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2003. "Modeling the Demand for Emerging Market Assets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe10, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2003fe10
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    2. Sandra Lizarazo & Jose Maria Da-Rocha, 2009. "Money, Credit and Default," Working Papers 0908, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    3. Sofia Babilis & Valpy Fitzgerald, 2005. "Risk Appetite, Home Bias and the Unstable Demand for Emerging Market Assets," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 459-476.
    4. Nicolas Melissas, 2009. "On Bid Disclosure in OCS Wildcat Auctions," Working Papers 0905, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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