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Identifying the role of moral hazard in international financial markets

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  • Steven B. Kamin

Abstract

Considerable attention has been paid to the possibility that large-scale IMF-led financing packages may have distorted incentives in international financial markets, leading private investors to provide more credit to emerging market countries, and at lower interest rates, than might otherwise have been the case. Yet, prior attempts to identify such distortions have yielded mixed evidence, at best. This paper makes three contributions to our ability to assess the empirical importance of moral hazard in international financial markets. First, it is argued that because large international "bailouts" did not commence until the 1995 Mexican crisis, financial indicators prior to that time could not have reflected a significant degree of this type of moral hazard. Therefore, one test for the existence of moral hazard is that the access of emerging markets to international credit is significantly easier than it was prior to 1995. Second, the paper argues that because private investors expect large-scale IMF-led packages to be extended primarily to economically or geo-politically important countries, moral hazard, if it exists, should lead these countries to have easier terms of access to credit than smaller, non-systemically important countries. Finally, in addition to looking at bond spreads, the focus of earlier empirical analyses of moral hazard, the paper also examines trends in capital flows to gauge the access of emerging market countries to external finance. Looking at the evidence in light of these considerations, the paper concludes that there is little support for the view that moral hazard is significantly distorting international capital markets at the present time.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven B. Kamin, 2002. "Identifying the role of moral hazard in international financial markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 736, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Steven T Phillips & Timothy D. Lane, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fratzscher, Marcel & Reynaud, Julien, 2011. "IMF surveillance and financial markets--A political economy analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 405-422, September.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    3. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2015. "Creditor moral hazard during the EMU debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 122-135.
    4. Noy, Ilan, 2008. "Sovereign default risk, the IMF and creditor moral hazard," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 64-78, February.
    5. Lee, Jong-Wha & Shin, Kwanho, 2008. "IMF bailouts and moral hazard," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 816-830, September.
    6. Ilan Noy, 2004. "Do IMF Bailouts Result in Moral Hazard? An Events-Study Approach," Working Papers 200402, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    7. Tillmann, Peter, 2005. "Private sector involvement in the resolution of financial crises: How do markets react?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 114-132, October.
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2012. "Macroeconomic environment, country risk and stock market performance: Evidence for Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1666-1678.
    9. Andrew G Haldane & Jorg Scheibe, 2004. "IMF lending and creditor moral hazard," Bank of England working papers 216, Bank of England.
    10. Michael Schröder & Friedrich Heinemann & Susanne Kruse & Matthias Meitner, 2007. "Pay high in good times, pay low in bad times," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 667-683.
    11. Ay?e Y. Evrensel & Ali M. Kutan, 2004. "Testing Creditor Moral Hazard in Sovereign Bond Markets: A Unified Theoretical Approach and Empirical Evidence," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-665, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Olivier Jeanne & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2005. "The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 1-5.
    13. Schröder, Michael & Heinemann, Friedrich & Kruse, Susanne & Meitner, Matthias, 2004. "GPD-linked Bonds as a Financing Tool for Developing Countries and Emerging Markets," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-64, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    14. Edda Zoli, 2004. "Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies' Access to Global Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/70, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jun I Kim, 2007. "Unconditional IMF Financial Support and Investor Moral Hazard," IMF Working Papers 07/104, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    Financial markets ; Developing countries;

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