IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dah/aeqaeq/v62_y2016_i2_q2_p117-146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Hardik A. Marfatia

Abstract

The present study investigates the main drivers of the capital flows and explicitly models regional interactions. Using a structural VAR framework, the capital flows are analyzed into global “push” factors and country-specific “pull” factors. Evidence suggests that significant inter-regional as well as intra-regional differences exist in the factors that drive capital flows. In particular, the foreign push factors explain the flow of foreign direct investments to majority of Asia whereas, such flows to Latin American economies are mainly driven by the pull factors. This is in contrast to portfolio flow dynamics. The push factors dominate the portfolio flows to Latin American countries whereas, both the factors are equally important for the Asian portfolio flows. Furthermore, it is found that the Asian capital flows have a positive effect on the flow of capital to Latin American region and they explain large variation in the capital flows to that region but interestingly, the reverse is not the case.

Suggested Citation

  • Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
  • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqaeq:v62_y2016_i2_q2_p117-146
    DOI: 10.3790/aeq.62.2.117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/aeq.62.2.117
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers (2008 onwards); Pay-per-view access from https://elibrary.duncker-humblot.com/journals/aeq (2008 onwards) and http://www.genios.de (2008 onwards)

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3790/aeq.62.2.117?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2004. "Are Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 641-657, August.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    4. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s," International Economic Association Series, in: Edmar L. Bacha (ed.), Economics in a Changing World, chapter 6, pages 123-148, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    7. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Maylis Coupet & Thierry Mayer, 2007. "Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 764-782, May.
    8. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2016. "Hot money in bank credit flows to emerging markets during the banking globalization era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-52.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    10. Recep Kok & Bernur Acikgoz Ersoy, 2009. "Analyses of FDI determinants in developing countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 105-123, January.
    11. Yung-Hsiang Ying & Yoonbai Kim, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows: The Case of Korea and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 954-968, April.
    12. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    14. Serge Jeanneau & Marian Micu, 2002. "Determinants of international bank lending to emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 112, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. di Giovanni, Julian, 2005. "What drives capital flows? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 127-149, January.
    16. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch During a Global Economic Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2023-2052.
    17. Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 4767, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    19. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    20. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2004. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 16(2‐3), pages 136-146, March.
    21. Kim, Yoonbai, 2000. "Causes of capital flows in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-253, April.
    22. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    23. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, September.
    24. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-251.
    25. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    26. Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias & Ulloa, Barbara, 2016. "What drives international portfolio flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-72.
    27. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2013. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990–2010," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 371-396, July.
    28. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    29. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    30. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    31. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    32. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    33. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    34. Domazlicky, Bruce R., 1980. "Regional Business Cycles: A Survey," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20.
    35. Recep Kok & Bernur Acikgoz Ersoy, 2009. "Analyses of FDI determinants in developing countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1/2), pages 105-123, January.
    36. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P & Kim, Jung Yeon, 2001. "Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 201-216, July.
    37. Serge Jeanneau & Marian Micu, 2002. "International bank lending to emerging market countries: explaining the 1990s roller coaster," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    38. Lambert, F. & Ramos-Tallada, J. & Rebillard, C., 2011. "Capital controls and spillover effects: evidence from Latin-American countries," Working papers 357, Banque de France.
    39. Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005. "Growing up with capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January.
    40. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2010. "Determinants of capital inflows into Asia: The relevance of contagion effects as push factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 273-284, September.
    41. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chang Zhao & Bing Wang, 2021. "Does China’s Low-Carbon Pilot Policy Promote Foreign Direct Investment? An Empirical Study Based on City-Level Panel Data of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Duc Hong Vo & Ha Minh Nguyen & Tan Manh Vo & Michael McAleer, 2020. "Information Sharing, Bank Penetration and Tax Evasion in Emerging Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Rosdiana Sijabat, 2022. "The Association of Economic Growth, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Capital Formation in Indonesia: Evidence from the Toda–Yamamoto Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Grzegorz Zimon & Dulal Chandra Pattak & Liton Chandra Voumik & Salma Akter & Funda Kaya & Robert Walasek & Konrad Kochański, 2023. "The Impact of Fossil Fuels, Renewable Energy, and Nuclear Energy on South Korea’s Environment Based on the STIRPAT Model: ARDL, FMOLS, and CCR Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Deimante Blavasciunaite & Lina Garsviene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2020. "Trade Balance Effects on Economic Growth: Evidence from European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Durdana Qaiser Gillani & Syed Ahmad Saad Gillani & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Cristi Spulbar & Elizabeth Coker-Farrell & Abdullah Ejaz & Ramona Birau, 2021. "The Nexus between Sustainable Economic Development and Government Health Expenditure in Asian Countries Based on Ecological Footprint Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Raul Ibarra & Isela-Elizabeth Tellez-Leon, 2020. "Are all types of capital flows driven by the same factors? Evidence from Mexico," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 461-502, July.
    3. Alba Carlos & Cuadra Gabriel & Hernández Juan R. & Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "Capital Flows to Emerging Economies and Global Risk Aversion during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2021-17, Banco de México.
    4. Tidiane Kinda, 2007. "Increasing Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries : The Role of Physical and Financial Infrastructure," Post-Print hal-00171934, HAL.
    5. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    6. Monica Singhania & Neha Saini, 2018. "Determinants of FPI in Developed and Developing Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 187-213, February.
    7. Milena Lipovina-Božoviæ & Maja Ivanoviæ, 2018. "Capital flows in Montenegro: SVAR model," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 647-675.
    8. Rogelio V. Mercado, 2023. "Bilateral capital flows: Gravity, push and pull," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 36-63, April.
    9. Noha Emara & Ayah El Said, 2021. "Sovereign ratings, foreign direct investment and contagion in emerging markets: Does being a BRICS country matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5217-5234, October.
    10. Tidiane KINDA, 2010. "Increasing Private Capital Flows To Developing Countries: The Role Of Physical And Financial Infrastructure In 58 Countries, 1970-2003," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    11. Serge Jeanneau & Marian Micu, 2002. "Determinants of international bank lending to emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 112, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Koepke, Robin, 2014. "Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 63519, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Apr 2015.
    13. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    14. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    15. Burns, Andrew & Kida, Mizuho & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Unconventional monetary policy normalization in high-income countries : implications for emerging market capital flows and crisis risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6830, The World Bank.
    16. Bárbara Ulloa & Carlos Saavedra & Carola Moreno, 2015. "A Microstructure Approach to Gross Portfolio Inflows. The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 760, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Xichen Wang & Cheng Yan, 2022. "Does the Relative Importance of the Push and Pull Factors of Foreign Capital Flows Vary Across Quantiles?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 252-299, June.
    18. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
    19. Gelos, Gaston & Gornicka, Lucyna & Koepke, Robin & Sahay, Ratna & Sgherri, Silvia, 2022. "Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2018. "Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature," IMF Working Papers 2018/214, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dah:aeqaeq:v62_y2016_i2_q2_p117-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: E-Publishing-Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.duncker-humblot.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.