IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/653.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper develops measures of emerging market credit spreads for the 1990s, based on data on new bond issues and bank loans, that cover a broader range of borrowers than the Brady bond spreads most commonly used to date. These measures are used to identify the impacts of credit ratings, maturity and currency denomination on spreads. We find important regional differences in spreads across the developing world, even after controlling for risk and maturity. We also identify the evolution of spreads during the 1990s up until the advent of the Asian financial crisis, holding other determinants constant, and find that emerging market spreads declined by more than can be explained by improvements in risk. However, for emerging market instruments with relatively favourable credit ratings, trends in spreads differed considerably from those experienced by Brady bonds. Finally, and in contrast to much market commentary, we find that variations in industrial country short-term interest rates explain relatively little of the decline in emerging market bond spreads. Longer-term trends, perhaps reflecting globalisation, along with the temporary impact of the Mexican financial crisis, may have been more important factors in the behaviour of emerging market spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:653
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/653/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/653/ifdp653.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    2. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
    3. Gregory R. Duffee, 1995. "The variation of default risk with Treasury yields," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 29-58.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    7. John Clark, 1994. "The structure, growth, and recent performance of the Latin American bond market," Research Paper 9416, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 35-57, October.
    9. Feder, Gershon & Ross, Knud Z, 1982. "Risk Assessments and Risk Premiums in the Eurodollar Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 679-691, June.
    10. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    11. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1994. "Interest rates, official lending, and the debt crisis: A reassessment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 263-285, August.
    12. Mr. Shogo Ishii & Mr. David Andrew, 1995. "The Mexican Financial Crisis: A Test of the Resilience of the Markets for Developing Country Securities," IMF Working Papers 1995/132, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steven B. Kamin & K von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging markets credit spreads in the 1990s," BIS Working Papers 68, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres, 2004. "Determinants of Spread and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt:A Panel Data Study," Borradores de Economia 295, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    4. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread and its Determinants," Borradores de Economia 315, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Steven B. Kamin, 2002. "Identifying the role of moral hazard in international financial markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 736, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread And Its Determinants," Borradores de Economia 3572, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Velloso, Helvia & Bustillo, Inés, 2000. "Bond markets for Latin American debt in the 1990s," Series Históricas 7687, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    9. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-3.
    11. Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2004. "Modelling the demand for emerging market assets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. Diaz Weigel, Diana & Gemmill, Gordon, 2006. "What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 476-502, April.
    13. Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2003. "Modeling the Demand for Emerging Market Assets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe10, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    14. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    15. Edda Zoli, 2005. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?," BIS Working Papers 174, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
    17. Ms. Edda Zoli, 2004. "Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies' Access to Global Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/070, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Eichler, Stefan & Maltritz, Dominik, 2013. "The term structure of sovereign default risk in EMU member countries and its determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1810-1816.
    19. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.
    20. Erdal Özmen & Özge Doğanay Yaşar, 2015. "Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spreads, Credit Ratings and Global Financial Crisis," ERC Working Papers 1510, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ratings; Developing countries; Bonds;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:653. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.